Bangladesh, Nepal ahead of India as growth in South Asia slows down: World Bank report
Washington: Bangladesh and Nepal are estimated to grow faster than India in 2019, according to the World Bank, which said that overall growth in South Asia is projected to slow down this fiscal in line with a global downward trend.
Pakistan's growth rate is projected to deteriorate further to a mere 2.4 per cent this fiscal year, as monetary policy remains tight, and the planned fiscal consolidation will compress domestic demand, it said.
Growth in South Asia is projected to fall to 5.9 per cent in 2019, down 1.1 percentage points from April 2019 estimates, casting uncertainty about a rebound in the short term, the World Bank said in its latest report.
The latest edition of the South Asia Economic Focus, Making (De)centralization Work, finds that strong domestic demand, which propped high growth in the past, has weakened, driving a slowdown across the region.
Imports have declined severely across South Asia, contracting between 15 and 20 per cent in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
In India, domestic demand has slipped, with private consumption growing 3.1 per cent in the last quarter from 7.3 per cent a year ago, while manufacturing growth plummeted to below 1 per cent in the second quarter of 2019 compared to over 10 per cent a year ago.
"Declining industrial production and imports, as well as tensions in the financial markets reveal a sharp economic slowdown in South Asia," said Hartwig Schafer, World Bank Vice President for the South Asia Region.
"As global and domestic uncertainties cloud the region's economic outlook, South Asian countries should pursue stimulating economic policies to boost private consumption and beef up investments, he said.
The report noted that South Asia's current economic slowdown echoes the decelerating growth and trade slumps of 2008 and 2012.
With that context in mind, the report remains cautiously optimistic that a slight rebound in investment and private consumption could jumpstart South Asia's growth up to 6.3 per cent in 2020, slightly above East Asia and the Pacific and 6.7 per cent in 2021.
In a focus section, the report highlights how, as their economies become more sophisticated, South Asian countries have made decentralisation a priority to improve the delivery of public services.
"Decentralisation in South Asia has yet to deliver on its promises and, if not properly managed, can degenerate into fragmentation, said Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for the South Asia Region.
"To make decentralisation work for their citizens, we encourage South Asian central governments to allocate their resources judiciously, create incentives to help local communities compete in integrated markets, and provide equal opportunities to their people, Timmer said.
In India, growth is projected to fall to 6.0 this fiscal year. Growth is then expected to gradually recover to 6.9 per cent in fiscal year 2021 and to 7.2 per cent in the following year.
In Bangladesh, the real GDP growth is estimated at 8.1 per cent in 2019, up from 7.9 per cent in 2018, the report said, adding that the country's growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2020 and 7.3 per cent in 2021.
The garment industry of Bangladesh has benefitted immensely from the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, Timmer said.
"In general, what we see in high frequency data is that Bangladesh is doing better than the rest of the region, especially than India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. We see that in industrial production, we see that in exports," he said.
"So that confirms the story that has been told now many times that the garment industry in Bangladesh is doing very well and very likely that industry has benefited from the trade tensions between the US and China. Interestingly, it's not just to the US or China, but also to other countries that they have very strong export performance, Timmer said.
In Nepal, GDP growth is projected to average 6.5 per cent over this and next fiscal year, backed by strong services and construction activity due to rising tourist arrivals and higher public spending.
In Afghanistan, with improved farming conditions and assuming political stability after the elections, growth is expected to recover and reach 3 per cent in 2020 and 3.5 per cent in 2021. In Bhutan, GDP growth is expected to jump to 7.4 per cent this fiscal year. In Maldives, growth is expected to reach 5.2 per cent in 2019.
In Sri Lanka, growth is expected to soften to 2.7 per cent in 2019. However, supported by recovering investment and exports, as the security challenges and political uncertainty of last year dissipate, it is projected to reach 3.3 per cent in 2020 and 3.7 per cent in 2021.
"Pakistan's economy is slowing as the country passes through yet another macroeconomic crisis with high twin deficits and low international reserves. With an IMF Extended Fund Facility supported stabilization program in place, growth is expected to remain low in the near-term," the report said.
"Obviously, the tensions are problematic for the whole region, but as we set off a year ago, the lack of integration into international markets is not just because of a lack of regional integration. Like India, Pakistan is underperforming in all markets and in the world," Timmer said.
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We are completely immune, says SC; flags half-baked running commentary on pending cases
New Delhi (PTI): Observing that half-baked truth and ill-informed running commentary on sub-judice cases affect public perception, the Supreme Court on Friday asserted that it is "completely immune" from reporting of cases for the sake of publicity or narrative building.
The observations were made by a bench comprising Chief Justice Surya Kant and Justices Joymalya Bagchi and Vipul M Pancholi during the hearing of a case concerning the repatriation of certain individuals deported to Bangladesh, when Solicitor General Tushar Mehta took strong exception to a news article published in an English daily on the issue.
"There is a concurrent and simultaneous narrative-building exercise going on. I am sure it does not affect your lordships. There are certain tabloids which are normally known and used for narrative building exercises. Unfortunately, today, to my amazement and shock, I read a front page story in a reputable and dependable newspaper like..., it must have escaped the editorial attention," the law officer said.
During the proceedings, the court was informed that Sunali Khatun, a pregnant woman, and her eight-year old son have come back to India and currently, she is getting medical attention at her father's residence in Birbhum in West Bengal.
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The bench fixed January 6 to hear the Centre's appeal against a Calcutta High Court judgement that directed the repatriation of certain individuals deported to Bangladesh on the alleged ground that the due process was not followed.
During the proceedings, the solicitor general Tushar Mehta, appearing for the Centre, raised the issue of the news report.
Terming the reportage as "tabloid-like", the top law officer said, "I do not want to escalate ... but attempts are made to build a particular kind of narrative" in a bid to influence the outcome.
The law officer said he was sure that the bench is not influenced by any such reports, but it does cast doubt about the intention to build a particular kind of narrative.
"My faith was shaken," Mehta said.
"We are completely immune from publicity and pseudo-publicity stunts. Narratives should not affect the lives of individuals," Justice Bagchi said, adding that the judges hardly get time to see newspapers.
Referring to the names of leading English newspapers, the top law officers said they cannot be reduced to "the level of these tabloids, where you plant stories. It is for the newspaper to decide".
Advising the law officer to "just ignore them", the CJI, however, said, "Ideally, ill-informed running commentary on sub-judice matters should not be made."
"The problem is half-baked distorted facts and ill-informed facts are being reported," he said.
"Reporting that a matter is coming up (for hearing) is fine. But if you thrust your opinion, then that is an issue. The issue is with half-baked truth and ill-informed opinion which affects public perception," the CJI added.
The CJI assured the law officer saying, "we do not accept pleadings which are outside."
"Once the judgment is passed, any constructive criticism is always most welcome," the CJI added.
Senior advocate Kapil Sibal, appearing for the West Bengal government, referred to the media's role in recent times in countries like the UK and the US, and said immigration issues are part of a "global discourse" and comments and public discourses are held on social media and other platforms.
"People write opinions in the US and England on immigration. As long as you don't attribute motive, it is not sacrilege," Sibal said.
At the outset, senior advocate Sanjay Hegde brought to the court's attention the plight of another deportee, Sweety Bibi, who remains stuck with her husband and two children.
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Hegde offered to provide documents proving their Indian citizenship. He urged the solicitor general to take up the other case on humanitarian grounds, saying, "that side of the border is very difficult for Indians."
The law officer assured Hegde that he will look into the issue and the verification may take sometime.
The court said once documents are verified, modalities for their return could be considered in a time-bound manner.
The case involves families who had been working as daily wagers in Delhi's Rohini area for two decades.
They were detained by police on June 18 on suspicion of being illegal Bangladeshi immigrants and deported on June 27.
The Calcutta High Court, in its impugned order, had observed that the deportation violated the Union Home Ministry’s own protocols, which require an inquiry by the state government before deportation.
The high court had noted that the "overenthusiasm" in deporting the detainees disturbed the "judicial climate".
Sibal reiterated this point during the hearing and said, "The Union does no inquiry for 30 days before deporting them."
