China's population grows marginally to 1.412 billion, may begin to decline by 2022: Census
Beijing: China's population grew by 0.53 per cent to reach 1.41178 billion, up from 1.4 billion in 2019, keeping its status as the world's most populous country, but the numbers are expected to decline from early next year, leading to labour shortages and a fall in consumption levels.
According to the seventh national population census released by the Chinese government on Tuesday, China's population in all the 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities reached 1.41178 billion. The figures do not include Hong Kong and Macao.
Significantly, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the new census figures reveal that the demographic crisis China faced was expected to deepen as the population above 60 years grew to 264 million, up by 18.7 per cent last year.
The further ageing of the population imposed continued pressure on the long-term balanced development of the population in the coming period, the NBS statement said.
The proportion of people aged between 15 and 59 was 894 million, down by 6.79 percentage points from that in the 2010 census.
The growth rate of the population was 0.53 per cent annually on average in the 7th census conducted last year in comparison to 0.57 per cent in the 6th census in 2010 and 1.07 per cent in the fifth census held in 2000.
The highest growth of China's population of 2.1 per cent was registered in the census survey held in 1982 after which the population continued to decline at a steady pace, which officials blamed on the decades-old one-child policy pursued by the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) to check the population growth and keep it under a manageable level.
"Data shows that China's population has continued to maintain slow growth in the past decade," said Ning Jizhe, head of the NBS. The birth rates continued to fall as Chinese mothers gave birth to 12 million babies last year, down from 14.65 million in 2019, marking a 22 per cent decline year on year.
The gender ratio of China's population also declined to 105.07 males to 100 females compared to 105.2 in 2010.
Last month, the NBS denied the Financial Times story that the population of the world's second-largest economy fell last year, which would have been the first decline since 1961.
Chinese demographers said that the 7th national population census results revealing that China's population is not just declining but also its demographic structure is deteriorating with a growing aging population, will serve as an important reference for China's population and economic policy adjustment as well as plans to put off retirement, which may come in the next year or two, a report in the state-run Global Times, a CPC-run newspaper, said on Tuesday.
They said that although China reported population growth in 2020, the general declining trend was inevitable. China's population is likely to start to decline as early as 2022, it said.
In view of the declining population, China stopped the one-child policy in 2016 and allowed two children, but it has had very limited impact to halt the declining trend as few people came forward to have a second child.
He Yafu, an independent demographer, said there is no doubt that China will fully lift birth restrictions in the near future to cope with the declining birth rate. The CPC is likely to remove its family planning policy as early as this autumn, he said.
The new census revealed that China's population living in urban areas grew by 63.89 per cent, totalling to 901.99 million, representing 63.89 per cent.
China, the second-largest economy, has conducted a national census every ten years since the 1990s.
A recent report by People's Bank of China, (PBOC) said demographics of China is set to change as its population growth enters negative growth after 2025, which will result in shortage of consumer demand.
China's population is set to peak in just four years' time and the milestone will be marked by a significant downturn in consumer demand, said Cai Fang, a member of the monetary policy committee of PBOC.
"When the total population enters negative growth [after 2025], there will be a shortage of demand. We need to pay attention to the impact of demographics on future consumption, he said.
The PBOC study said China should immediately liberalise its birth policies or face a scenario in which it has a lower share of workers and higher burden of elderly care than the US by 2050.
The four researchers from the PBOC said the country should not interfere with people's ability to have children or it will be too late to reverse the economic impact of a declining population.
"We should not hesitate and wait for the effects of existing birth policies, they said in a working paper published last month.
"The birth liberalisation should happen now when there are some residents who still want to have children but can't. It's useless to liberalise it when no one wants to have children," it said.
China is eyeing a progressive, flexible and differentiated path to raising the retirement age.
According to the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035, China will take small steps to raise the retirement age.
It will also implement flexible, tailored policies for different groups, consider all factors, and make overall plans. The NBC released the results of the seventh national population census on Tuesday, a month later than its previously-scheduled release period.
Let the Truth be known. If you read VB and like VB, please be a VB Supporter and Help us deliver the Truth to one and all.
Balendra Shah's RSP makes history, registers landmark victory in Nepal elections
_vb_87.jpeg)
Kathmandu (PTI): Rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah's RSP is all set to form the next government in Nepal after securing sweeping victory in crucial general elections on Saturday, decimating the established parties in the politically fragile nation.
Popularly known as Balen, the 35-year-old prime ministerial candidate of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) defeated four-time prime minister KP Sharma Oli, the chair of Nepal's legacy party, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) -- CPN-UML -- by a huge margin of about 50,000 votes in Jhapa-5 constituency.
Balen, 35, secured 68,348 votes against 74-year-old Oli's 18,734, the Election Commission (EC) said.
He is expected to be the next prime minister of Nepal, reflecting a public mood of rejection of established parties. The RSP, which was formed in 2022 by Ravi Lamichhane, has won 72 seats out of the 90 seats for which results were declared by 9:30 pm, according to the Election Commission (EC).
RSP's seats include a clean sweep in all 10 constituencies of Kathmandu district even as it is leading in 52 seats across the country, the EC data showed.
Legacy parties failed to convince voters for whom the major issues included fighting corruption and an end to nepotism apart from a generational change in political leadership of the Himalayan nation.
The Nepali Congress (NC) won 10 and was leading in eight seats; the CPN-(UML) won just four seats and is leading in eight; the Nepali Communist Party (NCP) won two seats and is leading in five, the Shrama Shakti Party (SSP) was leading in three seats, and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) won one seat, the EC data showed. Among the winners is one independent.
Nepal witnessed about 60 per cent voter turnout during the March 5 elections to the House of Representatives. The counting of votes started late Thursday night and as of 9:30 pm Saturday, counting was in progress in the remaining of the total 165 constituencies, the Election Commission said.
The election was being closely watched by India, which is hoping for a stable government in the politically fragile Himalayan nation to take forward the developmental partnership between the two sides.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday congratulated the people and government of Nepal for the successful conduct of elections. “It is heartening to see my Nepali sisters and brothers exercise their democratic rights so vibrantly. This historic milestone is a proud moment in Nepal's democratic journey,” Modi said in a post on X.
Modi also said that as a close friend and neighbour, India remains steadfast in its commitment to working closely with the people of Nepal and its new government to scale new heights of shared peace, progress and prosperity.
Oli, who too was projected as the PM face of the CPN-UML, wished Balen for a full five year tenure for his government in the Himalayan nation that has seen 14 governments in the last 18 years.
“Balen babu, congratulations for the victory. I wish your five year tenure be trouble free, successful and hearty congratulations,” Oli wrote in his social media post and attached a 2022 photo showing him gifting a tabla to Balen after the rapper-turned-politician won Kathmandu mayor's election as an independent.
The RSP, which projected Balendra Shah 'Balen' as its prime ministerial candidate and had organised its first election campaign in Janakpur in Madhesh, is heading towards a clean sweep of the province.
‘Balen’, as he is popularly known, projected himself as the “son of Madhesh” during the campaign, with the party launching the campaign with 'Ab ki bar Balendra Sarkar' (This time there will be Balendra’s government) tagline.
Of the total 32 seats in eight districts of Madhesh province, the RSP has won eight and is leading in 22 other constituencies, the EC said.
The party is also making a clean sweep in the Kathmandu Valley winning all 10 seats of Kathmandu district and two in Bhaktapur and two in Lalitpur district.
The party is also leading in the remaining one seat of the Kathmandu Valley with a huge margin, possibly as a result of a massive road show led by Balen in all 15 constituencies on the last day of the election campaign.
RSP chairman Lamichhane won with a huge margin from Chitwan-2 constituency, marking his third consecutive victory with 54,402 votes against his nearest rival NC's Mina Kumari Kharel, who received 14,564 votes.
According to the Election Commission, former prime minister and NCP leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda won from Rukum Purba district by securing 10,240 votes against his rival Lilamani Gautam of CPN-(UML), who got 3,462 votes.
RPP's Gyanendra Shahi won from the Jumla constituency of Karnali province by defeating his closest rival Naresh Bhandari of the NCP and became the only candidate of the pro-monarchist RPP to have secured a seat in the House of Representatives.
The election also saw 10 women candidates win, nine of them from the RSP while one from NC.
Meanwhile, the RSP is also leading in proportional voting system with the party bagging 474,266 votes followed by Nepali Congress with 160,384. The CPN (UML) has received 127,841, Nepali Communist Party 65,363, the RPP 34,154, and Shrama Shakti Party 17,437 votes till now.
Out of a total of 275 members of the Parliament, 165 are being elected through direct voting, while the remaining 110 through a proportionate method.
Around 3,400 candidates were vying for 165 seats under direct voting, and 3,135 candidates for 110 seats through proportionate voting.
The Gen Z youth, through their two-day intensified protests on September 8 and 9 last year, ousted Prime Minister Oli of the CPN-(UML), who was heading a coalition government with the backing of Nepali Congress that enjoyed nearly two-thirds majority support.
Though Balen was a popular choice to lead the interim government after Oli's ouster, he declined to lead the interim administration, saying he would prefer to contest the parliamentary election for a full term.
In January, he joined the RSP and was soon declared the party's prime ministerial candidate.
The major issues raised by Gen Z before and during the election campaign were anti-corruption, good governance, an end to nepotism, generational change in political leadership, etc.
Sunil Babu Pant, former MP and a political analyst, said, “The victory of Rastriya Swatantra Party in the March 5 elections and the expectation that Balen Shah could emerge as Nepal's next Prime Minister reflects the people's deep rooted frustration with the old political order and their hope for a new direction.”
“As Balen assumes the country's leadership, his first responsibility must be to demonstrate that corruption will not be tolerated under any circumstances,” he said.
Balen will also face a complex geopolitical challenge, Pant said, adding, “He must prove that he is not a puppet of any external power, western or otherwise. Nepal's leadership must carefully balance relations with all global actors and pursue an independent foreign policy that prioritises the national interest.”
