First COVID-19 case may have emerged in China in October 2019: Study
London: The SARS-CoV-2 virus, that causes COVID-19, may have started spreading in China as early as October 2019, two months before the first case was identified in Wuhan, according to a modelling study.
The research, published in the journal PLOS Pathogens on Thursday, suggests that the first case of COVID-19 arose between early October and mid-November, 2019 in China, with the most likely date of origin being November 17.
The origins of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remain unclear. The first officially identified case occurred in early December 2019.
However, mounting evidence suggests that the original case may have emerged even earlier.
David Roberts from the University of Kent, UK, and colleagues repurposed a mathematical model originally developed to determine the date of extinction of a species, based on recorded sightings of the species.
They reversed the method to determine the date when COVID-19 most likely originated, according to when some of the earliest known cases occurred in 203 countries.
"This novel application within the field of epidemiology offers a new opportunity to understand the emergence and spread of diseases as it only requires a small amount of data," Roberts said.
The analysis suggests that the first case occurred in China between early October and mid-November of 2019.
The first case most likely arose on November 17, and the disease spread globally by January 2020, according to the researchers.
The findings support growing evidence that the pandemic arose sooner and grew more rapidly than officially accepted, they said.
The analysis also identified when COVID-19 is likely to have spread to the first five countries outside of China, as well as other continents.
The results suggest that the virus spread beyond China by January 2020 with the estimated first case being in Japan on January 3, 2020, and followed by Thailand on January 7, 2020.
The third earliest origination date, outside of China, suggests that the virus had left eastern Asia and arrived in Europe, with an estimated first case on January 12, 2020, in Spain.
The virus appears to have continued spreading to other countries in eastern Asia with the fourth earliest origination date outside of China being in South Korea on January 14, 2020, the researchers said.
Following the spread to Europe, the virus appears to have spread to North America with an estimated first case being in the US on January 16, 2020, making the US the fifth country, they said.
The researchers noted that their novel method could be applied to better understand the spread of other infectious diseases in the future.
Better knowledge of the origins of COVID-19 could improve understanding of its continued spread, they added.
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Delhi polluted owing to Aravalli, says anchor Rajat Sharma; netizens troll him
Noida: India TV editor-in-chief Rajat Sharma has drawn sharp criticism on social media following remarks he made on air attributing Delhi’s air pollution partly to its geographical location and the Aravalli hill range.
Speaking during a recent episode of his prime-time show Aaj Ki Baat, Sharma said Delhi’s geography plays a major role in trapping polluted air.
“Geographical location is the main reason. Delhi is a big city and its shape is like a bowl, surrounded by the Aravalli hills on three sides. As a result, polluted air gets trapped and cannot disperse easily. Therefore, the problem of pollution in Delhi cannot be solved in one year or in any particular season,” he said.
His comments came amid a severe deterioration in air quality in the national capital. On Sunday morning, December 21, Delhi woke up to a thick blanket of toxic smog, sharply reducing visibility and causing widespread discomfort. The overall Air Quality Index (AQI) stood at 390 around 7 a.m., placing it in the ‘very poor’ category, according to data from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB).
Dense fog and smog also disrupted flight operations at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA). As many as 110 flights were cancelled, while over 370 flights were delayed due to poor visibility. Of the cancelled services, 59 were arriving flights and 51 were departures. Flight-tracking website Flightradar24 showed that departing flights faced an average delay of around 26 minutes.
Netizens troll Sharma
One user wrote on X, “Rajat Sharma is saying due to the Aravalli hills, there is air pollution in Delhi. He is defending mining and destroying the Aravalli hills like this. How can these people call themselves journalists?”
Another user accused him of political hypocrisy, comparing his earlier criticism of the Delhi government with his current remarks, and wrote, “In 2023 he blamed Arvind Kejriwal for Delhi air pollution. In 2025, he is blaming the Aravalli hills because BJP is in power. Hypocrisy = 100%, Journalism = 00%.”
Others termed the comments an example of the “godi media” narrative, alleging that geography was being blamed instead of governance, industrial emissions, vehicular pollution, construction dust, and stubble burning. “When they fail to question power or policy, they conveniently shift the blame to nature,” another post read.
“Friends, what can one even say about today’s godi media? According to them, the reason for Delhi’s pollution is that the Aravalli hills surround the city from three sides, trapping polluted air inside. Seriously? So now Sudhir Chaudhary and Rajat Sharma want us to believe that nature itself is to blame? When they fail to question power or policy, they conveniently shift the blame to geography. Apparently, it’s not years of environmental destruction or administrative failure—it’s the Aravalli hills! Does this explanation make any sense at all?,” wrote another.
What is the Aravali issue?
The controversy arises over the Union government’s revised definition of what constitutes the Aravalli hills.
The decision has drawn protests involving environmental activists across Haryana, Rajasthan, and parts of the Delhi-NCR region, who have raised concerns that the new definition could weaken protection for one of the world’s oldest mountain ranges.
Under the revised definition, an “Aravalli hill” is described as any landform in designated Aravalli districts with an elevation of 100 metres or more above local relief, while an “Aravalli range” is defined as a cluster of two or more such hills within 500 metres of each other. Activists fear this could open the door for mining, construction, and commercial activities in previously protected areas.
Environmentalists argue that the Aravalli range serves as a natural barrier against desertification, dust storms, and pollution, and plays a vital role in maintaining ecological balance in the Delhi-NCR region.
They have demanded that the entire Aravalli range be declared a fully protected area with strict conservation measures.
Meanwhile, Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav has stated that the new definition, accepted by the Supreme Court based on a Centre-led panel’s recommendations, would not result in any relaxation of mining norms in the Aravalli region.
Rajat Sharma is saying due to Aravalli hills there is Air pollution in Delhi. He is defending mining & destroying Aravalli hills like this
— Veena Jain (@Vtxt21) December 21, 2025
How can these people call themselves Journalists even after doing such things 🤮
pic.twitter.com/osgDAYl6Nb
🚨 2023 : Rajat Sharma was blaming Arvind Kejriwal for delhi air pollution
— Amock_ (@Amockx2022) December 21, 2025
🚨 2025 : He is blaming Aravalli Hills for delhi air pollution because BJP is in govt
Hypocrisy = 100%, Journalism = 00% 🤣 pic.twitter.com/EHCrAmAfGY
Friends, what can one even say about today’s godi media? According to them, the reason for Delhi’s pollution is that the Aravalli hills surround the city from three sides, trapping polluted air inside. Seriously? So now Sudhir Chaudhary and Rajat Sharma want us to believe that…
— The indian guy (@Ab60307) December 20, 2025
