First COVID-19 case may have emerged in China in October 2019: Study
London: The SARS-CoV-2 virus, that causes COVID-19, may have started spreading in China as early as October 2019, two months before the first case was identified in Wuhan, according to a modelling study.
The research, published in the journal PLOS Pathogens on Thursday, suggests that the first case of COVID-19 arose between early October and mid-November, 2019 in China, with the most likely date of origin being November 17.
The origins of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remain unclear. The first officially identified case occurred in early December 2019.
However, mounting evidence suggests that the original case may have emerged even earlier.
David Roberts from the University of Kent, UK, and colleagues repurposed a mathematical model originally developed to determine the date of extinction of a species, based on recorded sightings of the species.
They reversed the method to determine the date when COVID-19 most likely originated, according to when some of the earliest known cases occurred in 203 countries.
"This novel application within the field of epidemiology offers a new opportunity to understand the emergence and spread of diseases as it only requires a small amount of data," Roberts said.
The analysis suggests that the first case occurred in China between early October and mid-November of 2019.
The first case most likely arose on November 17, and the disease spread globally by January 2020, according to the researchers.
The findings support growing evidence that the pandemic arose sooner and grew more rapidly than officially accepted, they said.
The analysis also identified when COVID-19 is likely to have spread to the first five countries outside of China, as well as other continents.
The results suggest that the virus spread beyond China by January 2020 with the estimated first case being in Japan on January 3, 2020, and followed by Thailand on January 7, 2020.
The third earliest origination date, outside of China, suggests that the virus had left eastern Asia and arrived in Europe, with an estimated first case on January 12, 2020, in Spain.
The virus appears to have continued spreading to other countries in eastern Asia with the fourth earliest origination date outside of China being in South Korea on January 14, 2020, the researchers said.
Following the spread to Europe, the virus appears to have spread to North America with an estimated first case being in the US on January 16, 2020, making the US the fifth country, they said.
The researchers noted that their novel method could be applied to better understand the spread of other infectious diseases in the future.
Better knowledge of the origins of COVID-19 could improve understanding of its continued spread, they added.
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Balendra Shah's RSP makes history, registers landmark victory in Nepal elections
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Kathmandu (PTI): Rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah's RSP is all set to form the next government in Nepal after securing sweeping victory in crucial general elections on Saturday, decimating the established parties in the politically fragile nation.
Popularly known as Balen, the 35-year-old prime ministerial candidate of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) defeated four-time prime minister KP Sharma Oli, the chair of Nepal's legacy party, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) -- CPN-UML -- by a huge margin of about 50,000 votes in Jhapa-5 constituency.
Balen, 35, secured 68,348 votes against 74-year-old Oli's 18,734, the Election Commission (EC) said.
He is expected to be the next prime minister of Nepal, reflecting a public mood of rejection of established parties. The RSP, which was formed in 2022 by Ravi Lamichhane, has won 72 seats out of the 90 seats for which results were declared by 9:30 pm, according to the Election Commission (EC).
RSP's seats include a clean sweep in all 10 constituencies of Kathmandu district even as it is leading in 52 seats across the country, the EC data showed.
Legacy parties failed to convince voters for whom the major issues included fighting corruption and an end to nepotism apart from a generational change in political leadership of the Himalayan nation.
The Nepali Congress (NC) won 10 and was leading in eight seats; the CPN-(UML) won just four seats and is leading in eight; the Nepali Communist Party (NCP) won two seats and is leading in five, the Shrama Shakti Party (SSP) was leading in three seats, and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) won one seat, the EC data showed. Among the winners is one independent.
Nepal witnessed about 60 per cent voter turnout during the March 5 elections to the House of Representatives. The counting of votes started late Thursday night and as of 9:30 pm Saturday, counting was in progress in the remaining of the total 165 constituencies, the Election Commission said.
The election was being closely watched by India, which is hoping for a stable government in the politically fragile Himalayan nation to take forward the developmental partnership between the two sides.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday congratulated the people and government of Nepal for the successful conduct of elections. “It is heartening to see my Nepali sisters and brothers exercise their democratic rights so vibrantly. This historic milestone is a proud moment in Nepal's democratic journey,” Modi said in a post on X.
Modi also said that as a close friend and neighbour, India remains steadfast in its commitment to working closely with the people of Nepal and its new government to scale new heights of shared peace, progress and prosperity.
Oli, who too was projected as the PM face of the CPN-UML, wished Balen for a full five year tenure for his government in the Himalayan nation that has seen 14 governments in the last 18 years.
“Balen babu, congratulations for the victory. I wish your five year tenure be trouble free, successful and hearty congratulations,” Oli wrote in his social media post and attached a 2022 photo showing him gifting a tabla to Balen after the rapper-turned-politician won Kathmandu mayor's election as an independent.
The RSP, which projected Balendra Shah 'Balen' as its prime ministerial candidate and had organised its first election campaign in Janakpur in Madhesh, is heading towards a clean sweep of the province.
‘Balen’, as he is popularly known, projected himself as the “son of Madhesh” during the campaign, with the party launching the campaign with 'Ab ki bar Balendra Sarkar' (This time there will be Balendra’s government) tagline.
Of the total 32 seats in eight districts of Madhesh province, the RSP has won eight and is leading in 22 other constituencies, the EC said.
The party is also making a clean sweep in the Kathmandu Valley winning all 10 seats of Kathmandu district and two in Bhaktapur and two in Lalitpur district.
The party is also leading in the remaining one seat of the Kathmandu Valley with a huge margin, possibly as a result of a massive road show led by Balen in all 15 constituencies on the last day of the election campaign.
RSP chairman Lamichhane won with a huge margin from Chitwan-2 constituency, marking his third consecutive victory with 54,402 votes against his nearest rival NC's Mina Kumari Kharel, who received 14,564 votes.
According to the Election Commission, former prime minister and NCP leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda won from Rukum Purba district by securing 10,240 votes against his rival Lilamani Gautam of CPN-(UML), who got 3,462 votes.
RPP's Gyanendra Shahi won from the Jumla constituency of Karnali province by defeating his closest rival Naresh Bhandari of the NCP and became the only candidate of the pro-monarchist RPP to have secured a seat in the House of Representatives.
The election also saw 10 women candidates win, nine of them from the RSP while one from NC.
Meanwhile, the RSP is also leading in proportional voting system with the party bagging 474,266 votes followed by Nepali Congress with 160,384. The CPN (UML) has received 127,841, Nepali Communist Party 65,363, the RPP 34,154, and Shrama Shakti Party 17,437 votes till now.
Out of a total of 275 members of the Parliament, 165 are being elected through direct voting, while the remaining 110 through a proportionate method.
Around 3,400 candidates were vying for 165 seats under direct voting, and 3,135 candidates for 110 seats through proportionate voting.
The Gen Z youth, through their two-day intensified protests on September 8 and 9 last year, ousted Prime Minister Oli of the CPN-(UML), who was heading a coalition government with the backing of Nepali Congress that enjoyed nearly two-thirds majority support.
Though Balen was a popular choice to lead the interim government after Oli's ouster, he declined to lead the interim administration, saying he would prefer to contest the parliamentary election for a full term.
In January, he joined the RSP and was soon declared the party's prime ministerial candidate.
The major issues raised by Gen Z before and during the election campaign were anti-corruption, good governance, an end to nepotism, generational change in political leadership, etc.
Sunil Babu Pant, former MP and a political analyst, said, “The victory of Rastriya Swatantra Party in the March 5 elections and the expectation that Balen Shah could emerge as Nepal's next Prime Minister reflects the people's deep rooted frustration with the old political order and their hope for a new direction.”
“As Balen assumes the country's leadership, his first responsibility must be to demonstrate that corruption will not be tolerated under any circumstances,” he said.
Balen will also face a complex geopolitical challenge, Pant said, adding, “He must prove that he is not a puppet of any external power, western or otherwise. Nepal's leadership must carefully balance relations with all global actors and pursue an independent foreign policy that prioritises the national interest.”
