Gaza's Hospital Tragedy: New York Times analysis questions Israel’s video ‘evidence’
The analysis was originally published by New York Times on their website, this report is an aggregation of the original report published by New York Times. You can read the original report by clicking here. The original report was authored by Aric Toler, Haley Willis, Riley Mellen, Alexander Cardia, Natalie Reneau, Julian E. Barnes and Christoph Koettl
In a video captured, a projectile can be seen piercing the night skies over Gaza, followed by an explosion in mid-air. Moments later, another blast rocks the ground below. This footage has gained significant attention, serving as a crucial piece of evidence. Israeli and American officials have referenced this video to support their claim that a Palestinian rocket went off course, malfunctioned in flight, and tragically led to a fatal explosion at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City.
An analysis conducted by The New York Times challenges the initial interpretation of the video footage. Contrary to the previous assumption, the detailed examination of the clip, sourced from an Al Jazeera television camera livestreaming on the night of October 17, reveals a different narrative. The missile captured in the video is highly unlikely to be the source of the hospital explosion. The Times determined that it detonated in the sky approximately two miles away. Importantly, this incident appears to be unrelated to the tragic events at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital, representing a separate aspect of the conflict unfolding along the Israeli-Gaza border that night.
The New York Times' investigation, while shedding light on the missile's detonation at a considerable distance from Al-Ahli Arab Hospital, leaves critical questions unanswered. Specifically, the analysis does not definitively identify the cause of the hospital blast or assign responsibility.
What becomes evident from The Times' analysis is the complexity of the situation. It introduces doubt into the previously clear-cut narrative that Israeli officials presented. The widely publicized evidence they relied on has been called into question, casting questions on the overall understanding of the incident.
Against the backdrop of escalating conflict, the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital blast has emerged as a highly contentious event. The conflict began on October 7 when Hamas, launched an attack on Israel. The Israeli government claims that this attack resulted in the deaths of over 1,400 civilians and soldiers, with 200 hostages taken back to Gaza. In response, Israel initiated a relentless artillery and bombing campaign, causing significant casualties. According to the Hamas-run Gazan Health Ministry, this campaign has led to the death of 5,700 Palestinians. The situation remains volatile, with the Israeli military gearing up for a potential ground invasion.
The responsibility for the Al-Ahli Arab explosion is a matter of intense dispute, with Israeli officials and Palestinians each pointing fingers at the other. The New York Times analysis, studying multiple videos that provided crucial insights revealed that Hamas had been launching numerous rockets from the southwest of the hospital just moments before the blast occurred. The fiery explosion at the hospital aligns with the characteristics of a failed rocket, indicating that it fell significantly short of its intended target and still contained unspent fuel. These findings suggest a scenario where a misfired rocket could have led to the tragic incident at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital.
Further examination of the footage indicates ongoing Israeli bombardment in the vicinity. Within two minutes of the hospital being struck, the videos capture two additional explosions near the same location. Major Nir Dinar, an Israeli military spokesman, informed The New York Times that military forces were not targeting "within a range that endangered the hospital." However, he refrained from specifying the distance of the nearest strike, leaving key details unanswered.
The reported death toll from the incident, initially stated as 500 by Hamas and later revised to 471, remains uncertain. Western intelligence agencies believe the actual number to be considerably lower, but as of now, no verified figure has been established. It is noteworthy that the hospital itself was not directly struck; instead, whatever caused the explosion hit the hospital courtyard, where people had gathered for safety, along with a few parked cars.
The report further added that the investigation into the incident at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital has faced challenges in determining the source of the explosion. The size of the crater left by the impact, which was relatively small, has been highlighted by Israel as evidence that their munitions were not responsible. This fact could be consistent with various types of munitions. “Hamas, on the other hand, has not presented any remnants of Israeli munitions or other physical evidence to support their claim that Israel is accountable for the explosion,” it added.
U.S. intelligence officials stated on Tuesday that their agencies had evaluated the video footage, concluding that it depicts a Palestinian rocket launched from Gaza experiencing a "catastrophic motor failure." According to this assessment, a portion of the rocket subsequently crashed into the hospital grounds, leading to the explosion. A senior intelligence official emphasized that while they could not rule out the possibility of new information emerging that might alter their assessment, they currently held high confidence in their conclusions.
In response to NYT’s findings, a spokesman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence noted the differing interpretations of the video between NYT and American intelligence agencies. Understanding the events is notably complicated due to the ongoing exchange of fire between Israel and Hamas since the onset of the conflict.
The conflict has seen a relentless offensive from Israel, with over 8,000 munitions fired into Gaza. This extensive barrage constitutes a brutal assault on the region. Furthermore, video evidence and the hospital's official Facebook page confirm that Al-Ahli Arab Hospital had been struck earlier by an illumination artillery shell from Israel.
Hamas has continued launching deadly rockets at Israel from concealed sites within Gaza. It's known that Palestinian rockets have malfunctioned in the past; approximately 15 percent of rockets launched by Gazan militant groups are estimated to fail, the NYT report added. Following the hospital blast, an information war ensued. Hamas attributed the incident to an Israeli airstrike, while the Israel Defense Forces quickly denied responsibility and instead attributed the explosion to a malfunctioning Palestinian rocket.
Israeli officials released a report on October 18 regarding the explosion at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital. They also disclosed one intercepted conversation among Hamas fighters, implicating Islamic Jihad for the blast. Israel has referenced additional undisclosed evidence, including military activity logs, radar system data, other intercepted audio, and further videos to support their claims.
Israeli officials have consistently referenced the Al-Jazeera video in media interviews and social media. The Israel Defense Forces shared the Al Jazeera video footage three times on X (formerly known as Twitter). In these posts, the Israeli military identified the moving aerial object as a "rocket aimed at Israel" that "misfired and exploded" almost simultaneously with the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital blast. Spokesmen for the Israeli military explicitly identified this munition as the misfired rocket responsible for the explosion in interviews with major news outlets, including CNN and the BBC on October 18, as well as in an interview with India Today on October 19.
Despite being widely circulated and cited by numerous media outlets as evidence of a Palestinian rocket hitting the hospital, The New York Times has reached a different conclusion about the video. According to their analysis, the missile in the video was never in close proximity to the hospital. Instead, it was launched from Israel, not Gaza, and seemed to have exploded above the Israeli-Gaza border, at least two miles away from the hospital.
The New York Times analysis traced the object in the sky back to its origin in Israeli territory. To achieve this, it synchronized the Al Jazeera footage with five other videos filmed simultaneously, including footage from Channel 12, an Israeli television station, and a CCTV camera in Tel Aviv. These diverse videos offered perspectives from the north, south, east, and west. By triangulating the launch point using satellite imagery from these sources, NYT determined that the projectile was fired towards Gaza from the vicinity of the Israeli town of Nahal Oz, shortly before the tragic incident at the hospital. Notably, these findings align with conclusions reached by some independent online researchers, further supporting the analysis conducted by NYT.
Furthermore, the synchronized analysis of multiple videos revealed a crucial detail: the projectile captured in the Al Jazeera footage was launched after the barrage of Palestinian rockets that Israeli officials had assessed as responsible for the hospital explosion.
The timeline captured in the videos reveals significant events on the evening of October 17. From 6:59 p.m., barrages of Palestinian rockets were fired from two positions, situated southwest and northwest of the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital. These rockets were visibly propelled by their engines, creating flames in the nighttime sky as they moved northeast toward Israel. Importantly, the videos show that there was a gap of more than 25 seconds between the launch of the final Palestinian rocket and the occurrence of the hospital explosion.
The New York Times, despite its extensive analysis, could not independently identify the specific type of projectile that was fired from Israel, although it was launched from an area known to be equipped with an Iron Dome defense system. Notably, the Israeli military has stated that it does not fire Iron Dome interceptors into Gaza, and it is possible that the missile seen in the video did not cross over into Gazan territory. Moreover, the Israeli military has explicitly stated that the Iron Dome system did not shoot any interceptors in the questioned time and area.
For New York Times: Hiba Yazbek contributed reporting from Jerusalem. John Ismay contributed reporting from Washington, D.C. Yousur Al-Hlou contributed reporting from Cairo.
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Netanyahu recommends his Cabinet approve Hezbollah cease-fire proposal
Beirut, Nov 26: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that he would recommend his cabinet adopt a United States-brokered ceasefire agreement with Lebanon's Hezbollah, as Israeli warplanes struck across Lebanon, killing at least 23 people.
The Israeli military also issued a flurry of evacuation warnings — a sign it was aiming to inflict punishment on Hezbollah down to the final moments before any ceasefire takes hold. For the first time in the conflict, Israeli ground troops reached parts of Lebanon's Litani River, a focal point of the emerging deal.
In a televised statement, Netanyahu said he would present the ceasefire to Cabinet ministers later on Tuesday, setting the stage for an end to nearly 14 months of fighting.
Netanyahu said the vote was expected later Tuesday. It was not immediately clear when the ceasefire would go into effect, and the exact terms of the deal were not released. The deal does not affect Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, which shows no signs of ending.
The evacuation warnings covered many areas, including parts of Beirut that previously have not been targeted. The warnings, coupled with fear that Israel was ratcheting up attacks before a ceasefire, sent residents fleeing. Traffic was gridlocked, and some cars had mattresses tied to them. Dozens of people, some wearing their pajamas, gathered in a central square, huddling under blankets or standing around fires as Israeli drones buzzed loudly overhead.
Hezbollah, meanwhile, kept up its rocket fire, triggering air raid sirens across northern Israel.
Lebanese officials have said Hezbollah also supports the deal. If approved by all sides, the deal would be a major step toward ending the Israel-Hezbollah war that has inflamed tensions across the region and raised fears of an even wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah's patron, Iran.
The deal calls for a two-month initial halt in fighting and would require Hezbollah to end its armed presence in a broad swath of southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops would return to their side of the border. Thousands of Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers would deploy in the south, and an international panel headed by the United States would monitor all sides' compliance.
But implementation remains a major question mark. Israel has demanded the right to act should Hezbollah violate its obligations. Lebanese officials have rejected writing that into the proposal. Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz insisted on Tuesday that the military would strike Hezbollah if the U.N. peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, doesn't provide “effective enforcement” of the deal.
“If you don't act, we will act, and with great force,” Katz said, speaking with UN special envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said Tuesday that Israel's security concerns had been addressed in the deal also brokered by France.
“There is not an excuse for not implementing a ceasefire. Otherwise, Lebanon will fall apart,” Borrell told reporters in Italy on the sidelines of a Group of Seven meeting. He said France would participate on the ceasefire implementation committee at Lebanon's request.
Bombardment of Beirut's southern suburbs continues
Even as Israeli, US, Lebanese and international officials have expressed growing optimism over a ceasefire, Israel has continued its campaign in Lebanon, which it says aims to cripple Hezbollah's military capabilities.
An Israeli strike on Tuesday levelled a residential building in the central Beirut district of Basta — the second time in recent days warplanes have hit the crowded area near the city's downtown. At least seven people were killed and 37 wounded, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry.
Three people were killed in a separate strike in Beirut and three in a strike on a Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon. Lebanese state media said another 10 people were killed in the eastern Baalbek province. Israel says it targets Hezbollah fighters and their infrastructure.
Earlier, Israeli jets struck at least six buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs. One strike slammed near the country's only airport, sending plumes of smoke into the sky. The airport has continued to function despite its location on the Mediterranean coast next to the densely populated suburbs where many of Hezbollah's operations are based.
Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee issued evacuation warnings for 20 buildings in the suburbs, as well as a warning for the southern town of Naqoura where UNIFIL is headquartered.
UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti told The Associated Press that peacekeepers will not evacuate.
Other strikes hit in the southern city of Tyre, where the Israeli military said it killed a local Hezbollah commander.
The Israeli military also said its ground troops clashed with Hezbollah forces and destroyed rocket launchers in the Slouqi area on the eastern end of the Litani River, a few kilometres from the Israeli border.
Previous ceasefire hopes were dashed
Under the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah would be required to move its forces north of the Litani, which in some places is about 30 kilometers (20 miles) north of the border.
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the strongest Iranian-backed force in the region, would likely significantly calm regional tensions that have led to fears of a direct, all-out war between Israel and Iran. It's not clear how the ceasefire will affect the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Hezbollah had long insisted that it would not agree to a ceasefire until the war in Gaza ends, but it dropped that condition.
Hezbollah began firing into northern Israel, saying it was showing support for the Palestinians, a day after Hamas carried out its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, triggering the Gaza war. Israel returned fire on Hezbollah, and the two sides have been exchanging barrages ever since.
Israel escalated its campaign of bombardment in mid-September and later sent troops into Lebanon, vowing to put an end to Hezbollah fire so tens of thousands of evacuated Israelis could return to their homes.
More than 3,760 people have been killed by Israeli fire in Lebanon the past 13 months, many of them civilians, according to Lebanese health officials. The bombardment has driven 1.2 million people from their homes. Israel says it has killed more than 2,000 Hezbollah members.
Hezbollah fire has forced some 50,000 Israelis to evacuate in the country's north, and its rockets have reached as far south in Israel as Tel Aviv. At least 75 people have been killed, more than half of them civilians. More than 50 Israeli soldiers have died in the ground offensive in Lebanon.
After previous hopes for a ceasefire were dashed, U.S. officials cautioned that negotiations were not yet complete and noted there could be last-minute hitches that delay or destroy an agreement.
“Nothing is done until everything is done,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said.
While the ceasefire proposal is expected to be approved if Netanyahu brings it to a vote in his security Cabinet, one hard-line member, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, said he would oppose it. He said on X that a deal with Lebanon would be a “big mistake” and a “missed historic opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah.”
