Global Nuclear Arms: Which Countries Are on the Brink of Going Nuclear?
The global nuclear weapons landscape has seen notable escalations since the release of Fair Observer’s comprehensive report in November 2024. As of June 23, 2025, several nations have either advanced their nuclear programs or reignited debates over acquiring such capabilities, pushing the world closer to a potential new arms race.
Iran Approaching the Nuclear Threshold
Following Israel's October 2024 strike on Iranian energy facilities, Tehran vowed retaliation using “all available tools,” raising alarms over its nuclear ambitions. As of June 2025, Iran's nuclear breakout time—i.e., the time required to develop a nuclear weapon—is now estimated to be in days or weeks, according to multiple intelligence assessments. While Iran has not officially weaponized its nuclear material, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has noted serious gaps in monitoring and transparency.
Iran reportedly holds around nine tonnes of enriched uranium at 60% purity, enough to produce several nuclear weapons if it chooses to do so. While some Israeli strikes in June 2025 targeted facilities in Natanz and Arak, temporarily slowing progress, intelligence reports from both the U.S. and Israel suggest that Iran could still produce a bomb within two to four weeks if the decision is made.
The United States and NATO
The United States has continued its nuclear modernization programme, increasing deployments across NATO territories. Reports also suggest that the U.S. is extending its strategic nuclear umbrella to regions like Taiwan, amid growing tensions with China. In 2024 alone, nuclear-armed countries collectively spent over $100 billion on maintaining and upgrading their arsenals, an 11% increase from the previous year.
Russia’s Expanding Arsenal and Posture
Russia has an estimated 5,459 nuclear warheads, of which around 1,718 are deployed on strategic delivery systems. Since suspending its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) in 2023, Russia has deepened its nuclear partnership with Belarus, where some of its warheads are now stationed.
Moscow has also expanded the scale and frequency of its nuclear military drills, signalling a more assertive posture amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and deteriorating relations with the West.
China's Rapid Nuclear Expansion
China is on a fast track to significantly boost its nuclear capabilities. As of mid-2025, it possesses between 600 and 660 operational warheads and is expected to cross the 1,000 mark by 2030. Beijing’s nuclear cooperation with Russia, and its quiet engagements with Iran, suggest a broader strategy to challenge U.S. dominance and reshape global deterrence dynamics.
Other Declared Nuclear States
United Kingdom: Estimated to maintain around 225 to 260 active warheads.
France: Possesses approximately 290 warheads, with an independent deterrent capability.
India: Holds between 90 and 110 warheads; expected to increase its stockpile to 150–270 in the coming years.
Pakistan: Estimated arsenal of around 170 warheads, with continued advancements in delivery systems.
Israel: Remains undeclared but is widely believed to possess 80 to 90 nuclear weapons and maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity.
North Korea: Estimated to have fewer than 50 nuclear weapons; continues to conduct tests and refine missile delivery systems.
Emerging Proliferation Hotspots
Middle East
Iran's progress has raised fears of a nuclear arms race in the region. Saudi Arabia has long maintained a security partnership with Pakistan, and officials have hinted at acquiring a bomb if Iran succeeds. Turkey, which already hosts U.S. nuclear weapons under NATO, has also expressed interest in developing its own arsenal, with growing nuclear energy cooperation with Russia potentially providing the technical pathway.
East Asia
South Korea’s public support for developing nuclear weapons has risen to over 70%, especially after North Korea’s recent provocations and the collapse of reunification hopes in early 2024. Japan’s nuclear breakout time remains within months, although strong public sentiment against nuclear arms, rooted in the memory of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, has kept its weapons programme dormant for now.
Taiwan’s nuclear past has resurfaced in debates, especially after questions were raised over the strength of U.S. security commitments. While official policy remains against nuclearization, any shift in the regional balance could change that calculus.
Europe
Ukraine’s war with Russia has triggered a fresh debate on nuclear deterrence in Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently floated the idea of pursuing nuclear weapons if NATO membership remains elusive. Though the comment was later retracted, the sentiment reflects growing frustration among Ukrainian leadership.
Meanwhile, European leaders, particularly in Germany and France, are discussing the creation of a more independent nuclear deterrent for the continent. Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer and others have openly supported this idea, especially following the re-election of Donald Trump in the U.S. and concerns over NATO’s future cohesion.
Past Lessons and Present Risks
The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), signed in 1968, was instrumental in preventing the widespread spread of nuclear weapons, with several countries like South Africa, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine giving up their arsenals in exchange for security guarantees. However, the collapse of arms control treaties like the INF and the faltering commitment to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) indicate weakening global consensus on non-proliferation.
History shows that smaller nations have often supported each other in nuclear development: Israel and South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, Argentina and Israel. Such partnerships remain a threat to international stability.
The world today stands at a precarious junction. As geopolitical tensions intensify, more nations are re-evaluating their strategic doctrines. Iran’s nearing breakout capability, North Korea’s continued defiance, and the growing insecurity across Europe and Asia are pushing the global nuclear order toward a new era of brinkmanship.
The collapse of diplomatic agreements and the erosion of trust among major powers have left the world with fewer tools to contain nuclear ambitions. While the declared nuclear states continue to modernize and posture, smaller nations may soon see proliferation not as a taboo, but as a necessity.
This article is based on the Fair Observer report published in November 2024 and updated with the latest developments as of June 23, 2025.
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Skeleton handed over to police, says Lawyer for Dharmasthala mass burials case complainant
Belthangady: A skeleton, allegedly buried as mentioned in the complaint related to the Dharmasthala mass burials case, has been exhumed and handed over to the Belthangady police. Pawan Deshpande, the lawyer representing the complainant, stated that all necessary legal procedures were followed and a formal statement was recorded before the judge.
The complainant, who has alleged the mass burial of bodies in Dharmasthala, appeared before the Principal Civil Judge and JMFC Court of Belthangady Taluk on July 11 to give his statement.
Speaking to the media after the court proceedings, advocate Pawan Deshpande said, “The complainant is prepared to clearly identify the locations where the bodies were buried. We will cooperate fully with the police on whatever date they set. Relevant information has already been submitted, and there is a concern that evidence could be destroyed. It is now the responsibility of the police to act and exhume the bodies as per the statement.”
When asked about the identity of the accused in the case, Deshpande clarified that the details have been submitted to the court and are with the investigating officer. “We do not have access to that information,” he said.
The lawyer also confirmed that the complainant has not been arrested or taken into police custody. “He is with us and will appear whenever the police direct him to. The complainant is cooperating with the investigation,” Deshpande added.
