Global Nuclear Arms: Which Countries Are on the Brink of Going Nuclear?
The global nuclear weapons landscape has seen notable escalations since the release of Fair Observer’s comprehensive report in November 2024. As of June 23, 2025, several nations have either advanced their nuclear programs or reignited debates over acquiring such capabilities, pushing the world closer to a potential new arms race.
Iran Approaching the Nuclear Threshold
Following Israel's October 2024 strike on Iranian energy facilities, Tehran vowed retaliation using “all available tools,” raising alarms over its nuclear ambitions. As of June 2025, Iran's nuclear breakout time—i.e., the time required to develop a nuclear weapon—is now estimated to be in days or weeks, according to multiple intelligence assessments. While Iran has not officially weaponized its nuclear material, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has noted serious gaps in monitoring and transparency.
Iran reportedly holds around nine tonnes of enriched uranium at 60% purity, enough to produce several nuclear weapons if it chooses to do so. While some Israeli strikes in June 2025 targeted facilities in Natanz and Arak, temporarily slowing progress, intelligence reports from both the U.S. and Israel suggest that Iran could still produce a bomb within two to four weeks if the decision is made.
The United States and NATO
The United States has continued its nuclear modernization programme, increasing deployments across NATO territories. Reports also suggest that the U.S. is extending its strategic nuclear umbrella to regions like Taiwan, amid growing tensions with China. In 2024 alone, nuclear-armed countries collectively spent over $100 billion on maintaining and upgrading their arsenals, an 11% increase from the previous year.
Russia’s Expanding Arsenal and Posture
Russia has an estimated 5,459 nuclear warheads, of which around 1,718 are deployed on strategic delivery systems. Since suspending its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) in 2023, Russia has deepened its nuclear partnership with Belarus, where some of its warheads are now stationed.
Moscow has also expanded the scale and frequency of its nuclear military drills, signalling a more assertive posture amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and deteriorating relations with the West.
China's Rapid Nuclear Expansion
China is on a fast track to significantly boost its nuclear capabilities. As of mid-2025, it possesses between 600 and 660 operational warheads and is expected to cross the 1,000 mark by 2030. Beijing’s nuclear cooperation with Russia, and its quiet engagements with Iran, suggest a broader strategy to challenge U.S. dominance and reshape global deterrence dynamics.
Other Declared Nuclear States
United Kingdom: Estimated to maintain around 225 to 260 active warheads.
France: Possesses approximately 290 warheads, with an independent deterrent capability.
India: Holds between 90 and 110 warheads; expected to increase its stockpile to 150–270 in the coming years.
Pakistan: Estimated arsenal of around 170 warheads, with continued advancements in delivery systems.
Israel: Remains undeclared but is widely believed to possess 80 to 90 nuclear weapons and maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity.
North Korea: Estimated to have fewer than 50 nuclear weapons; continues to conduct tests and refine missile delivery systems.
Emerging Proliferation Hotspots
Middle East
Iran's progress has raised fears of a nuclear arms race in the region. Saudi Arabia has long maintained a security partnership with Pakistan, and officials have hinted at acquiring a bomb if Iran succeeds. Turkey, which already hosts U.S. nuclear weapons under NATO, has also expressed interest in developing its own arsenal, with growing nuclear energy cooperation with Russia potentially providing the technical pathway.
East Asia
South Korea’s public support for developing nuclear weapons has risen to over 70%, especially after North Korea’s recent provocations and the collapse of reunification hopes in early 2024. Japan’s nuclear breakout time remains within months, although strong public sentiment against nuclear arms, rooted in the memory of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, has kept its weapons programme dormant for now.
Taiwan’s nuclear past has resurfaced in debates, especially after questions were raised over the strength of U.S. security commitments. While official policy remains against nuclearization, any shift in the regional balance could change that calculus.
Europe
Ukraine’s war with Russia has triggered a fresh debate on nuclear deterrence in Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently floated the idea of pursuing nuclear weapons if NATO membership remains elusive. Though the comment was later retracted, the sentiment reflects growing frustration among Ukrainian leadership.
Meanwhile, European leaders, particularly in Germany and France, are discussing the creation of a more independent nuclear deterrent for the continent. Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer and others have openly supported this idea, especially following the re-election of Donald Trump in the U.S. and concerns over NATO’s future cohesion.
Past Lessons and Present Risks
The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), signed in 1968, was instrumental in preventing the widespread spread of nuclear weapons, with several countries like South Africa, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine giving up their arsenals in exchange for security guarantees. However, the collapse of arms control treaties like the INF and the faltering commitment to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) indicate weakening global consensus on non-proliferation.
History shows that smaller nations have often supported each other in nuclear development: Israel and South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, Argentina and Israel. Such partnerships remain a threat to international stability.
The world today stands at a precarious junction. As geopolitical tensions intensify, more nations are re-evaluating their strategic doctrines. Iran’s nearing breakout capability, North Korea’s continued defiance, and the growing insecurity across Europe and Asia are pushing the global nuclear order toward a new era of brinkmanship.
The collapse of diplomatic agreements and the erosion of trust among major powers have left the world with fewer tools to contain nuclear ambitions. While the declared nuclear states continue to modernize and posture, smaller nations may soon see proliferation not as a taboo, but as a necessity.
This article is based on the Fair Observer report published in November 2024 and updated with the latest developments as of June 23, 2025.
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Draconian, direct assault on democracy: Left parties on bills to remove PM, CMs over criminal charge
New Delhi (PTI): Left parties on Wednesday said the new bills that provide for the removal of the prime minister or chief ministers arrested on serious criminal charges, are a direct "assault" on democracy and the federal framework, and vowed to oppose it "tooth and nail".
The government plans to introduce three bills in Parliament on Wednesday for the removal of the prime minister, a Union minister, a chief minister or a minister of a state or Union Territory when arrested or detained on serious criminal charges for 30 days in a row
Flaying the move, CPI(M) general secretary MA Baby said on X that "Modi Govt's 3 bills to oust PM, CMs, Ministers after 30 days in custody expose its neo-fascist characteristics. This direct assault on our democracy will be opposed by CPIM tooth and nail. We urge all democratic forces to unite against this draconian move".
"These bills, cloaked as tackling crime in high office, reveal their true intent given the RSS-controlled Modi govt's history of undermining elected state govts. With SIR, they mark a blatant move to subvert our democracy. All democratic forces must resist," he said on X.
CPI(M) Rajya Sabha MP John Brittas called the bills "draconian".
"The new bill by Union Home Minister Shri Amit Shah, purportedly in the name of 'public interest, welfare, and good governance,' is, in reality, draconian and designed to destabilize opposition-led state governments while undermining India’s federal structure," Brittas said in a post on X.
"In an era marked by vindictive politics, where central agencies are deployed against opposition leaders, the provisions will be misused for ulterior motives," he said. The CPI(M) leader said the bill’s reference to “constitutional morality” contradicts its spirit, as it deviates from the established principle that disqualification and punishment should be tied to convictions by courts, not merely charges or arrests. "This principle is clearly enshrined in Section 8 of the Representation of the People Act (RPA). In today’s pernicious political climate, where individuals can be easily charged, arrested, and detained for extended periods, this legislation will be weaponised to target political opponents and erode democratic norms," he said.
CPI(ML) Liberation general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya said the bills will sound the "death knell" for federalism.
"Viewed together with the ongoing systematic subversion of the electoral system starting with the appointment of Election Commissioners to the relentless push for 'One Nation, One Election' system, this amendment will sound the death knell for federalism and parliamentary democracy in India," Bhattacharya said.
"Every state government opposed to the BJP's politics and policies will henceforth be rendered permanently destabilised and dysfunctional. Every NDA ally will be on tenterhooks to fall in line with the BJP," he said in a statement.
"The weaponisation of central agencies like ED, CBI, IT, NIA and the abuse of the Constitutional office of Governors in narrow partisan interest, a trend which has been seriously condemned on several occasions even by the Supreme Court, will now gain legal validity with the enactment of this bill," he added.
The three bills were approved by the Cabinet on Tuesday.
These bills are the Government of Union Territories (Amendment) Bill 2025; the Constitution (One Hundred And Thirtieth Amendment) Bill 2025; and the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation (Amendment) Bill 2025. The Bills are likely to be referred to a committee of Parliament.
