Global Nuclear Arms: Which Countries Are on the Brink of Going Nuclear?
The global nuclear weapons landscape has seen notable escalations since the release of Fair Observer’s comprehensive report in November 2024. As of June 23, 2025, several nations have either advanced their nuclear programs or reignited debates over acquiring such capabilities, pushing the world closer to a potential new arms race.
Iran Approaching the Nuclear Threshold
Following Israel's October 2024 strike on Iranian energy facilities, Tehran vowed retaliation using “all available tools,” raising alarms over its nuclear ambitions. As of June 2025, Iran's nuclear breakout time—i.e., the time required to develop a nuclear weapon—is now estimated to be in days or weeks, according to multiple intelligence assessments. While Iran has not officially weaponized its nuclear material, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has noted serious gaps in monitoring and transparency.
Iran reportedly holds around nine tonnes of enriched uranium at 60% purity, enough to produce several nuclear weapons if it chooses to do so. While some Israeli strikes in June 2025 targeted facilities in Natanz and Arak, temporarily slowing progress, intelligence reports from both the U.S. and Israel suggest that Iran could still produce a bomb within two to four weeks if the decision is made.
The United States and NATO
The United States has continued its nuclear modernization programme, increasing deployments across NATO territories. Reports also suggest that the U.S. is extending its strategic nuclear umbrella to regions like Taiwan, amid growing tensions with China. In 2024 alone, nuclear-armed countries collectively spent over $100 billion on maintaining and upgrading their arsenals, an 11% increase from the previous year.
Russia’s Expanding Arsenal and Posture
Russia has an estimated 5,459 nuclear warheads, of which around 1,718 are deployed on strategic delivery systems. Since suspending its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) in 2023, Russia has deepened its nuclear partnership with Belarus, where some of its warheads are now stationed.
Moscow has also expanded the scale and frequency of its nuclear military drills, signalling a more assertive posture amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and deteriorating relations with the West.
China's Rapid Nuclear Expansion
China is on a fast track to significantly boost its nuclear capabilities. As of mid-2025, it possesses between 600 and 660 operational warheads and is expected to cross the 1,000 mark by 2030. Beijing’s nuclear cooperation with Russia, and its quiet engagements with Iran, suggest a broader strategy to challenge U.S. dominance and reshape global deterrence dynamics.
Other Declared Nuclear States
United Kingdom: Estimated to maintain around 225 to 260 active warheads.
France: Possesses approximately 290 warheads, with an independent deterrent capability.
India: Holds between 90 and 110 warheads; expected to increase its stockpile to 150–270 in the coming years.
Pakistan: Estimated arsenal of around 170 warheads, with continued advancements in delivery systems.
Israel: Remains undeclared but is widely believed to possess 80 to 90 nuclear weapons and maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity.
North Korea: Estimated to have fewer than 50 nuclear weapons; continues to conduct tests and refine missile delivery systems.
Emerging Proliferation Hotspots
Middle East
Iran's progress has raised fears of a nuclear arms race in the region. Saudi Arabia has long maintained a security partnership with Pakistan, and officials have hinted at acquiring a bomb if Iran succeeds. Turkey, which already hosts U.S. nuclear weapons under NATO, has also expressed interest in developing its own arsenal, with growing nuclear energy cooperation with Russia potentially providing the technical pathway.
East Asia
South Korea’s public support for developing nuclear weapons has risen to over 70%, especially after North Korea’s recent provocations and the collapse of reunification hopes in early 2024. Japan’s nuclear breakout time remains within months, although strong public sentiment against nuclear arms, rooted in the memory of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, has kept its weapons programme dormant for now.
Taiwan’s nuclear past has resurfaced in debates, especially after questions were raised over the strength of U.S. security commitments. While official policy remains against nuclearization, any shift in the regional balance could change that calculus.
Europe
Ukraine’s war with Russia has triggered a fresh debate on nuclear deterrence in Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently floated the idea of pursuing nuclear weapons if NATO membership remains elusive. Though the comment was later retracted, the sentiment reflects growing frustration among Ukrainian leadership.
Meanwhile, European leaders, particularly in Germany and France, are discussing the creation of a more independent nuclear deterrent for the continent. Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer and others have openly supported this idea, especially following the re-election of Donald Trump in the U.S. and concerns over NATO’s future cohesion.
Past Lessons and Present Risks
The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), signed in 1968, was instrumental in preventing the widespread spread of nuclear weapons, with several countries like South Africa, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine giving up their arsenals in exchange for security guarantees. However, the collapse of arms control treaties like the INF and the faltering commitment to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) indicate weakening global consensus on non-proliferation.
History shows that smaller nations have often supported each other in nuclear development: Israel and South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, Argentina and Israel. Such partnerships remain a threat to international stability.
The world today stands at a precarious junction. As geopolitical tensions intensify, more nations are re-evaluating their strategic doctrines. Iran’s nearing breakout capability, North Korea’s continued defiance, and the growing insecurity across Europe and Asia are pushing the global nuclear order toward a new era of brinkmanship.
The collapse of diplomatic agreements and the erosion of trust among major powers have left the world with fewer tools to contain nuclear ambitions. While the declared nuclear states continue to modernize and posture, smaller nations may soon see proliferation not as a taboo, but as a necessity.
This article is based on the Fair Observer report published in November 2024 and updated with the latest developments as of June 23, 2025.
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Messi mania grips Kolkata as thousands welcome Argentine icon at 2.26 am
Kolkata (PTI): Thousands braved the December chill and waited past midnight to give a rousing welcome to Argentine superstar footballer Lionel Messi as he arrived in Kolkata for his whirlwind three-day, four-city GOAT India Tour 2025.
The Barcelona legend's 2.26 am touchdown in the early hours of Saturday sent the city into a frenzy. Gate 4 of the international arrivals turned into a roaring sea of chants, flags and flashing phones, with fans sprinting between gates for even a fleeting glimpse of their favourite star.
Children perched on shoulders and drums rolled as Messi was whisked out through the VIP gate under massive security. A heavy convoy then escorted him to his hotel, where another huge crowd was waiting deep into the night.
Barricades, police deployment, and non-stop cheering completed a citywide eruption of "Messi mania."
Messi arrived with long-time strike partner Luis Suárez and Argentina teammate Rodrigo De Paul. Over the next 72 hours, he will zip across Kolkata, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Delhi, meeting chief ministers, corporate leaders, Bollywood celebrities and eventually Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday.
Sleepless wait ends in disappointment
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Despite keeping vigil through the night, the wait ended in disappointment for many fans as they could not catch a glimpse of their icon.
Heavy security meant Messi was whisked out of the airport and taken to his hotel around 3.30 am through a back entrance, giving hundreds of waiting supporters a complete miss.
Only a handful of lucky airport staff managed a fleeting glimpse of the Argentine superstar as he stepped off the private Gulfstream V, looking dapper in a black suit over a white T-shirt, before being driven straight off the tarmac.
The Hyatt Regency lobby turned chaotic as fans sprinted across corridors shouting "Messi! Messi!" that echoed well past dawn.
The lobby resembled an Argentine fan club, dotted with sky-blue jerseys, scarves and flags. Breast-feeding infants clung to mothers, children raced around, and exhausted supporters sank into lobby sofas as the frenzy built up.
Messi checked into Room 730, with the entire seventh floor sealed off to ensure no movement around his suite.
With security at its peak, some fans who could afford it booked rooms in the hotel to stay as close to Messi as possible.
A family from New Alipore checked in a day early just so that their son, Krish Gupta, a Cristiano Ronaldo fan, would not miss a Messi moment.
"I'm a die-hard Ronaldo fan, so what? His biggest rival is coming to my city and I cannot miss the moment. So we planned to stay in the hotel a day in advance," said Krish, a Class 9 student of Birla High School.
He roamed the coffee shop with his mother and elder sister, anxious for a peek at the icon.
"I just want to tell him to play football with me. And if I'm not successful, I will go to the gym tomorrow morning to catch a glimpse of him. I have my autograph book ready and hopefully I will get a selfie."
High hopes
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Satadru Dutta, the sole promoter of the tour who received Messi at the airport, said the moment was historic for Kolkata.
"In 2011, he had come after becoming the captain, but now he is coming after winning the World Cup and his eighth Ballon d'Or. So, this is really special. I don't think he will come again, so it's about celebration," Dutta told reporters.
He said Messi's presence could give Indian football a real push.
"Never ever have so many sponsors come together for a football star. You can say this is for Messi, but even if 10 per cent of that money comes to the development of Indian football, it would be very big. This statue that has come up and will be unveiled in the morning is also the first-of-its-kind in the world. Messi is set to leave a legacy behind this time," he added.
Security was tightened across the city ahead of Messi's GOAT India Tour, with policemen at every crossing, sniffer dogs checking vehicles and heightened surveillance around the hotel.
Staff were busy preparing the themed decor, including two large three-layered fondant cakes in Christmas colours.
Outside the airport and later near the hotel, massive crowds braved the winter chill to welcome Messi.
Fans waved Argentina flags and jerseys, screamed his name and broke into chants as emotions ran high, some clapping, some crying, many overwhelmed at witnessing a once-in-a-generation legend in their city.
The Hyatt Regency became the epicentre of the frenzy, with street vendors selling scarves, flags and Messi No 10 jerseys.
A few fans turned up in wigs and full Argentine colours. "This is a lifetime opportunity. We will not sleep tonight and will head straight to the stadium in the morning. Today is celebration day," said one fan.
The Itinerary
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Messi begins his GOAT India Tour on Saturday with a sponsors' meet-and-greet before heading to the Salt Lake Stadium for a tribute programme featuring music, dance and an exhibition match between Mohun Bagan 'Messi' All Stars and Diamond Harbour 'Messi' All Stars.
He is scheduled to arrive at 10.50 am for interactions with both teams, a felicitation of Bengal's Santosh Trophy-winning side and a "Master Class with Messi" for kids. Luis Suárez, Rodrigo De Paul and Shah Rukh Khan will join the proceedings, with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and other dignitaries invited.
Messi will take a lap of honour before a virtual unveiling of his 70-foot statue at Lake Town.
He will then depart for Hyderabad at 2.05 pm for the evening leg at the Rajiv Gandhi Stadium, featuring a short exhibition match, a five-minute appearance by Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy, a football clinic and felicitation.
He then heads to Mumbai for his event at the Wankhede. The leg will also feature a 45-minute philanthropic fashion event with Suárez and De Paul, preceded by a Padel Cup at the CCI.
The tour ends in Delhi where Messi will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Minerva Academy's triple youth-trophy winners will be felicitated, followed by a nine-a-side celebrity match.
Kolkata's tryst with footballers
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Kolkata's bond with football royalty dates back to 1977 when Pele's New York Cosmos played a 2-2 draw against Mohun Bagan at Eden Gardens.
Pele returned in 2015 to greet the class of '77, telling the crowd: "You can never have another Pele."
Brazil's Dunga, Bebeto and Mauro Silva, and Colombia's René Higuita who showcased his scorpion-kick saves in 2012 all drew big turnouts. German great Oliver Kahn's 2008 farewell match at Salt Lake Stadium pulled more than one lakh spectators.
But no one stirred the city like Diego Maradona, whose 2008 and 2017 visits saw near-unprecedented crowds line the streets and stadiums. Uruguay's Diego Forlán, fresh from his Golden Ball win, received a similarly rousing welcome in 2010.
Then in 2011, Messi had visited the city captaining Argentina for the first time on foreign soil, leading them to a 1-0 win over Venezuela in an FIFA international friendly before a packed Salt Lake Stadium.
