Most voters think economy poor, but split on whether Trump or Harris can fix it: Poll
Washington (AP/PTI): Voters remain largely divided over whether they prefer Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris to handle key economic issues, although Harris earns slightly better marks on elements such as taxes for the middle class, according to a new poll.
A majority of registered voters in the survey by The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research describe the economy as poor. About 7 in 10 say the nation is going in the wrong direction.
But the findings reaffirm that Trump has lost what had been an advantage on the economy, which many voters say is the most important issue this election season above abortion, immigration, crime and foreign affairs.
“Do I trust Trump on the economy? No. I trust that he'll give tax cuts to his buddies like Elon Musk,” said poll respondent Janice Tosto, a 59-year-old Philadelphia woman and self-described independent.
An AP-NORC poll conducted in September found neither Harris nor Trump had a clear advantage on handling “the economy and jobs”. But this poll asked more specific questions about whether voters trusted Trump or Harris to do a better job handling the cost of housing, jobs and unemployment, taxes on the middle class, the cost of groceries and gas, and tariffs.
The poll found that 46 per cent of voters prefer Harris on middle-class taxes, compared to 35 per cent for Trump. Harris also has a slight advantage on the cost of housing. Voters are about evenly divided on whether Trump or Harris is better on prices for everyday essentials like groceries and gas, and neither candidate has an edge on jobs and unemployment.
Voters, meanwhile, are slightly more likely to prefer Trump on the issue of tariffs, which were defined in the poll as taxes on imported goods.
Poll respondent Amber Moody, 36, from Halifax, Virginia, said she trusts Trump — and Republicans in general — much more on economic matters.
“It seems to me that in my lifetime, every time a Democrat holds office, the economy suffers,” she said. “Prices go up, taxes go up and the national debt goes up. While I don't approve of everything Donald Trump says and does, I do believe he is the better choice.”
Voters see Harris more favourably than Trump
Voters' impressions of Harris and Trump have remained steady over the last month.
About half of voters have a very or somewhat favourable opinion of Harris, while 46 per cent see her unfavourably.
Meanwhile, about 4 in 10 voters have a positive view of Trump and about 6 in 10 have an unfavourable view. Trump's favourability ratings have been remarkably consistent over the last few months, even after two assassination attempts and a felony conviction.
Compared to last month, views of the candidates are stable among Black and Hispanic voters, as well as among men and women. Black voters' views of Harris are overwhelmingly positive — about three-quarters have a favourable view of the Democratic candidate — and their views of Trump are negative, with about 2 in 10 holding a favourable view.
Hispanic voters also view Harris more favourably than Trump, although the gap is narrower: About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters have a favourable view of Harris and about 4 in 10 have an favourable view of Trump.
The poll also shows a gender gap in views of the candidates heading into the final days of the election.
About half of women voters have a favourable impression of Harris, while only around one-third see Trump favourably. Among men, about half have a favourable view of Harris and a similar share have a positive opinion of Trump.
Voters are pessimistic about the economy and the country
Overall, voters remain pessimistic about the state of the economy and the general direction of the country.
About half of voters describe the nation's economy as very or somewhat poor. Republicans and independents are more likely than Democrats to express that view. There are modest signs of improvement, however, compared to an AP-NORC poll from October 2023, when about 7 in 10 US adults thought the US economy was in bad shape. The number was even worse in October 2022, when close to 8 in 10 Americans described the economy as poor.
About two-thirds of voters also say the country is headed in the wrong direction, while roughly one-third say things are moving in the right direction. Pessimism on that question has been fairly consistent over the last three years, although closer to 8 in 10 Americans thought the US was heading in the wrong direction a year ago.
US adults were similarly gloomy just before the last presidential election, according to an AP-NORC poll from October 2020 when roughly 7 in 10 Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction.
Jeffrey Trimble, a 62-year-old Democrat from Hermitage, Pennsylvania, said he's increasingly optimistic about the direction of the nation after “four years of hell” during Trump's first term.
“We have some really good people at the top of our government who have a vision, they're kind, they're trying to get us back on track,” Trimble said.
Overall, the new poll highlights signs of trouble for both candidates as they work to assemble winning coalitions.
Younger voters are considerably more pessimistic about the health of the economy than older voters, and that's not good news for Harris, whose party has long relied on strong support from voters of colour and young people.
Voters under the age of 45 are also slightly less likely than voters over 45 to trust Harris to handle the cost of housing or the cost of groceries and gas, although that doesn't mean they prefer Trump. Sizable shares of younger voters — about one-quarter on both issues — trust neither candidate or both equally.
Trump's strongest issue remains immigration
On other issues, meanwhile, Trump's most consistent advantage continues to be immigration.
Forty-five percent of voters say he's the better candidate to handle immigration issues, compared to about 4 in 10 who prefer Harris. About half of white voters trust Trump more on the issue of immigration, while about one-third say this about Harris. Hispanic voters are split on which candidate they prefer to handle immigration.
Harris' strongest issues are abortion policy, with about half of voters saying she'd be better on that issue compared to about 3 in 10 for Trump; climate change, where about half prefer her leadership and about 2 in 10 prefer Trump's; and election integrity, where about half prefer Harris and about 3 in 10 prefer Trump.
The candidates are about even on the issue of crime. Foreign policy is also a key issue this fall, although neither candidate has a clear advantage on the situation in the Middle East. There are some signs of weakness on the issue for Harris within her own party, however. Only about two-thirds of Democratic voters say Harris would be the better candidate to handle the situation in the Middle East. Among Republicans, about 8 in 10 say Trump would be better.
Diana Campbell Williams, a 72-year-old Democrat who lives in Auburn, Michigan, cites foreign affairs as her top issue.
She says she's concerned about Russia, Iran and North Korea. She doesn't like Trump's questioning of NATO and his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I trust Harris more,” Williams said. “I feel she knows more about what's going on, and I prefer the type of people she'd be surrounded by after the election.”
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CM Siddaramaiah alleges ‘criminal conspiracy’ in Sringeri recount, vows legal action
Bengaluru (PTI): Alleging a “criminal conspiracy” by BJP candidate D N Jeevaraj in the Sringeri Assembly poll recounting, Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah on Tuesday said the outcome was manipulated after valid postal ballot votes in favour of Congress leader T D Raje Gowda were tampered with during the recounting process.
Following a Karnataka High Court order on an election petition filed by Jeevaraj, challenging Raje Gowda’s election, the reverification and recounting were conducted on Saturday.
After the reverification and recount of postal ballots for the Sringeri Assembly constituency, votes polled in favour of Raje Gowda were reduced by 255, the returning officer said.
A report on the matter has been submitted to the Election Commission of India for further action, the officer added.
Congress leader Raje Gowda had won the 2023 Assembly polls from Sringeri by 201 votes, defeating his nearest rival Jeevaraj.
Addressing a press conference in Bengaluru, Siddaramaiah said the High Court had directed the recounting of postal ballots and that irregularities were noticed during the exercise conducted on May 2.
“This is a clear case of criminal conspiracy,” Siddaramaiah said, alleging that valid votes cast in favour of Raje Gowda were altered after being accepted by counting agents of all parties, including Congress, BJP, and JD(S).
He claimed that during the recounting of postal ballots, 255 votes were initially accepted as valid by all agents but were later tampered with by subordinate officials.
“There is a second mark on the votes polled in favour of Raje Gowda. They had accepted these as valid votes. Subsequently, another mark was made by officials. This is a clear case of criminal conspiracy,” he said.
When asked who was behind the alleged conspiracy, the CM replied, “It was hatched by Jeevaraj and others. It is planned.”
Siddaramaiah further alleged that the returning officer acted improperly by declaring the result despite the presence of an Election Commission observer during the recounting.
“Immediately after the counting, the returning officer announced the result. He should not have done so; this is against the law,” he said.
He pointed out that Raje Gowda had originally won by 201 votes, but after the recounting, the BJP candidate was declared the winner by 52 votes.
“The BJP has committed a criminal act of conspiracy. This is not vote chori but vote dacoity,” he alleged.
The CM said a police complaint had already been filed by Raje Gowda’s election agent, Sudhir Kumar, and emphasised the need for electoral integrity.
“We want transparency and free and fair elections. That is what our Constitution mandates,” he added.
Stating that the government would pursue legal remedies, Siddaramaiah said, “We are preparing an appeal challenging the returning officer’s announcement in a court of law.”
Responding to a separate query on elections in other states, the CM said there appeared to be an anti-incumbency factor in West Bengal, while results in Tamil Nadu were “surprising,” adding that Vijay’s party was emerging as the largest there.
Following the victory of party candidates in Bagalkote and Davanagere South, Siddaramaiah expressed confidence about future electoral prospects in Karnataka.
“Even in 2028, we will win the Assembly elections. We will come back,” the CM said.
Siddaramaiah added that he would order a forensic examination into the alleged tampering of postal ballots.
