UK may have sufficient herd immunity to COVID-19, says Indian-origin academic's study
London: The UK population may already have developed sufficient levels of herd immunity required to prevent a feared second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in the country, notes an Oxford University study involving Indian-origin academic Professor Sunetra Gupta.
In a paper titled The impact of host resistance on cumulative mortality and the threshold of herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2', Gupta along with three other Oxford University colleagues notes that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) required to prevent a resurgence of the deadly coronavirus may have already been built up due to exposure to seasonal coronaviruses, such as the common cold.
It is widely believed that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) required to prevent a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is in excess of 50 per cent for any epidemiological setting.
Here, we demonstrate that HIT may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses, notes the paper.
These results help to explain the large degree of regional variation observed in seroprevalence and cumulative deaths and suggest that sufficient herd immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave, it says.
The new theory, which is yet to be peer-reviewed and analysed, suggests that when resistant people mix with non-resistant people, the herd immunity "threshold" drops sharply.
Gupta, a professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford University, has previously called on a focus on increased antibody testing to determine the levels of immunity already being built up in the UK population against the deadly virus.
"Given the mounting evidence that exposure to seasonal coronaviruses offers protection against clinical symptoms, it would be reasonable to assume that exposure to SARS-CoV-2 itself would confer a significant degree of clinical immunity," she and her colleagues, Jose Lourenco, Francesco Pinotti and Craig Thompson, note in their study.
"Thus, a second peak may result in far fewer deaths, particularly among those with comorbidities in the younger age classes," they add.
For diseases where a vaccine is available, herd immunity is often calculated with the assumption that everybody has the same level of immunity known as a homogenous model.
But a number of studies into the novel coronavirus, which has claimed over 45,000 lives in the UK, have been focussed on the differing levels of immunity within the population given the lack of a vaccine yet.
Let the Truth be known. If you read VB and like VB, please be a VB Supporter and Help us deliver the Truth to one and all.
Another North Goa nightclub sealed; Kejriwal says corruption led to fire tragedy
Panaji (PTI): As part of a crackdown against tourist establishments violating laws and safety norms in the aftermath of the Arpora fire tragedy, Goa authorities on Saturday sealed a renowned club at Vagator and revoked the fire department NOC of another club.
Cafe CO2 Goa, located on a cliff overlooking the Arabian Sea at Vagator beach in North Goa, was sealed. The move came two days after Goya Club, also in Vagator, was shut down for alleged violations of rules.
Elsewhere, campaigning for local body polls, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal said the fire incident at Birch by Romeo Lane nightclub at Arpora, which claimed 25 lives on December 6, happened because the BJP government in the state was corrupt.
An inspection of Cafe CO2 Goa by a state government-appointed team revealed that the establishment, with a seating capacity of 250, did not possess a no-objection certificate (NOC) of the Fire and Emergency Services Department. The club, which sits atop Ozrant Cliff, also did not have structural stability, the team found.
The Fire and Emergency Services on Saturday also revoked the NOC issued to Diaz Pool Club and Bar at Anjuna as the fire extinguishers installed in the establishment were found to be inadequate, said divisional fire officer Shripad Gawas.
A notice was issued to Nitin Wadhwa, the partner of the club, he said in the order.
Campaigning at Chimbel village near Panaji in support of his party's Zilla Panchayat election candidate, Aam Aadmi Party leader Kejriwal said the nightclub fire at Arpora happened because of the "corruption of the Pramod Sawant-led state government."
"Why this fire incident happened? I read in the newspapers that the nightclub had no occupancy certificate, no building licence, no excise licence, no construction licence or trade licence. The entire club was illegal but still it was going on," he said.
"How could it go on? Couldn't Pramod Sawant or anyone else see it? I was told that hafta (bribe) was being paid," the former Delhi chief minister said.
A person can not work without bribing officials in the coastal state, Kejriwal said, alleging that officers, MLAs and even ministers are accepting bribes.
