World's population set to decline in next few decades for first time in centuries: Study
China's population could come down to 732 million from 1.4 billion currently
New York: The world’s population is for the first time in centuries, set to decline in the next few decades, a new study published in The Lancet has revealed.
The current population of the world is 7.8 billion people and it is expected to peak in the year 2064, according to the study. During the peak, the number is expected to go up to roughly 9.7 billion.
Following the peak, by the end of the century, the population will drop to 8.8 billion by 2100. The study further adds that the last time the global population declines was way back in the 14th century due to the Black Plague.
“The last time that global population declined was in the mid-14th century, due to the Black Plague. If our forecast is correct, it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine," Lead study author and Professor of Global Health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Stein Emil Vollset said.
The study has also predicted that the population of 23 countries could shrink by more than half. The countries include Japan, Thailand, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and South Korea.
Even the most populated country currently, China’s population can come down to 732 million in 2100 from 1.4 billion people currently.
"There are two key factors: improvements in access to modern contraception and the education of girls and women,” said Vollset.
“These factors drive the fertility rate – the average number of children a woman delivers over her lifetime which is the largest determinant of population. The global total fertility rate is predicted to steadily decline, from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100, well below the minimum rate (2.1 live births per woman) considered necessary to maintain population numbers," he added.
Dr. Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the Lancet, said in a statement: "The 21st century will see a revolution in the story of our human civilization. Africa and the Arab World will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence. By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers. This will truly be a new world, one we should be preparing for today."
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Sengottaiyan secures historic 10th victory in Gobichettipalayam assembly constituency
Gobichettipalayam (Tamil Nadu) (PTI): In a historic 10th win, veteran leader K A Sengottaiyan clinched the Gobichettipalayam seat in the 2026 Assembly elections.
Contesting for the first time under actor Vijay’s TVK, the 78-year-old secured approximately 71,380 votes, defeating DMK’s N Nallasivam by a margin of nearly 13,000 votes.
This win marks Sengottaiyan’s 10th consecutive victory in the constituency, cementing his status as an immovable force in the region despite his high-profile exit from the AIADMK in late 2025.
His success was a cornerstone for the TVK, which emerged as a formidable force across the state. Supporters celebrated the win as a testament to Sengottaiyan’s personal influence, which successfully transitioned from his former Dravidian home to the newly formed TVK.
