Bagalkote bypoll turns into neck-and-neck battle, says Vartha Bharati-Sankalp exit poll
Bengaluru: A joint post-poll survey by Vartha Bharati and Bengaluru-based political research organisation Sankalp has indicated a fierce contest in the Bagalkote Assembly by-election, with BJP posing a serious challenge to the sitting Congress.
Congress had won the constituency in the 2023 Assembly election by a narrow margin of 5,878 votes. According to the survey, retaining the seat may now be difficult for the party.
The study says around 12 per cent of the votes secured by Congress in the previous election may shift to BJP this time. It also suggests Lingayat voters in the constituency are again leaning towards BJP.
Male voters favour Congress, women tilt to BJP
Among male voters, Congress appears to have a slight edge.
- Congress: 50.8 per cent
- BJP: 48.1 per cent
- Others: 1.1 per cent
Among women voters, BJP has gained a clear advantage.
- BJP: 52.0 per cent
- Congress: 37.7 per cent
- Others: 10.3 per cent
The survey notes that unlike Davanagere South, women voters in Bagalkote seem to have supported BJP in larger numbers, which may become a deciding factor.
Youth support boosts BJP
Among voters aged 18 to 25:
- BJP: 52.7 per cent
- Congress: 35.5 per cent
- Others: 11.8 per cent
This indicates a strong tilt of young voters towards BJP.
BJP ahead among middle-age voters too
The 26 to 40 age group, the biggest voter block in the constituency, also appears to favour BJP.
- BJP: 54.0 per cent
- Congress: 41.5 per cent
- Others: 4.5 per cent
Sympathy factor may help Congress
Congress is projected to lead strongly among voters aged 41 to 60.
- Congress: 57.4 per cent
- BJP: 41.4 per cent
The survey says sympathy following the death of late H.Y. Meti and support among his followers may have worked in Congress’s favour.
Among voters above 60 years:
- Congress: 52.7 per cent
- BJP: 47.3 per cent
Vote retention from 2023 polls
Congress is estimated to have retained 87 per cent of the votes it got in 2023.
- 12 per cent may shift to BJP
- 1 per cent may move to others
BJP, meanwhile, is projected to have retained 92 per cent of its previous vote base.
- 7 per cent of BJP’s earlier votes may have moved to Congress
The survey says BJP has largely preserved its 2023 support base in both Bagalkote and Davanagere South.
Community-wise vote shifts
Of the 12 per cent votes shifting from Congress to BJP:
- 33 per cent Lingayats
- 19 per cent Dalits/SC
- 11 per cent Brahmins
- 7 per cent Kurubas
- 30 per cent others
Of the 7 per cent votes moving from BJP to Congress:
- 32 per cent Dalits/SC
- 26 per cent Lingayats
- 7 per cent Kurubas
- 7 per cent Brahmins
- 29 per cent others
What may help Congress
The survey cites the following positives for Congress:
- Sympathy factor after H.Y. Meti’s death
- Support for the ruling party
- Lack of enthusiasm around BJP candidate
What may help BJP
The survey says BJP may benefit from:
- Anti-incumbency sentiment against Congress government
- BJP’s Lok Sabha election win in Bagalkote
- Support from youth and Lingayat voters
Candidate-wise estimate
The survey projects:
- Congress candidate Umesh Meti: 43% to 48%
- BJP candidate Veeranna Charantimath: 40% to 46%
Very narrow margin projected
Congress is estimated to be ahead by only 2,000 to 3,500 votes.
With such a slim margin and strong BJP challenge, the survey says an upset on counting day cannot be ruled out.
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Meghalaya: Interstate ATM theft racket busted, 6 arrested
Shillong (PTI): An interstate racket involved in ATM thefts across several states has been busted, with the arrest of six persons in connection with a break-in at an electronic banking outlet in Meghalaya's Ri-Bhoi district, police said on Wednesday.
The accused were allegedly involved in breaking into an ATM of the Meghalaya Cooperative Apex Bank on April 5, 2024, they said.
Three of the accused were arrested from Barpeta in Assam, while the remaining were apprehended from Haryana, police said.
Ri-Bhoi SP Giri Prasad M said a special police team was constituted to investigate the case.
"With coordinated efforts and assistance from Assam and Haryana Police, we were able to apprehend the accused involved in the ATM break-in," he told PTI.
The case was registered at Umiam police station under sections of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS).
According to police, the gang used gas cutters to break open the ATM safe and fled with the cash within minutes.
"The group is part of a larger network involved in similar ATM thefts across different states. Further investigation is underway to dismantle the entire network," the SP added.
