Vartha Bharati-Sankalp exit poll sees close fight in Davanagere South; Congress lead narrows sharply
Bengaluru: A post-poll survey conducted by Vartha Bharati and Bengaluru-based political research organisation Sankalp has projected a tight contest in the Davanagere South Assembly by-election, with Congress still ahead of BJP but with a sharply reduced margin compared to the 2023 Assembly election.
According to the survey, Congress may retain the seat, but it is likely to lose around 25 per cent of the votes it had secured in the 2023 election. As a result, its lead is expected to shrink considerably. In contrast, BJP is projected to have retained 95 per cent of the votes it secured in 2023.
The survey also noted widespread anger among Muslim voters against Congress, making the by-election far from easy for the ruling party.
Vote share projection
The survey estimates that of the total votes polled in 2023, Congress had secured 58 per cent. In the present by-election, its vote share may decline to 48.7 per cent.
BJP, which had received 39 per cent votes in 2023, may rise to 43.5 per cent this time.
SDPI, which had polled only 0.9 per cent in 2023, is projected to rise sharply to 5.7 per cent.
Independents and NOTA together may account for 2.1 per cent votes.
The survey stated that dissatisfaction among Muslims over ticket distribution and the manner in which Congress handled the community may hurt Congress and benefit SDPI.
Where Congress votes are shifting
Of the votes Congress may lose, a major share is projected to move to BJP.
The survey says:
- 17 per cent of Congress’s lost votes may shift to BJP
- 7 per cent may move to SDPI
- Around 1 per cent may go to others
This means that out of every 100 voters who supported Congress in 2023, nearly 25 may have shifted elsewhere in the by-election.
BJP vote retention strong
The survey estimates BJP has retained 95 per cent of its 2023 voters.
Only 5 per cent of BJP’s earlier votes may have moved to Congress.
Of that 5 per cent shift:
- 25 per cent are Dalits
- 33 per cent Lingayats
- 25 per cent Kurubas
- 17 per cent others
The survey says no BJP votes appear to have shifted to SDPI.
Social group movement from Congress to BJP
Among the 17 per cent votes shifting from Congress to BJP:
- 50 per cent Dalits
- 27 per cent others
- 11 per cent Lingayats
- 12 per cent Kurubas
The 7 per cent shift from Congress to SDPI is attributed clearly to Muslim voter dissatisfaction.
Gender-wise voting pattern
Among male voters:
- Congress: 47.0 per cent
- BJP: 44.2 per cent
- SDPI: 6.4 per cent
- Others: 2.4 per cent
Among female voters:
- Congress: 53.0 per cent
- BJP: 41.6 per cent
- SDPI: 3.9 per cent
Age-wise voting trend
18 to 25 years
A close fight is seen among younger voters.
- Congress: 45.9 per cent
- BJP: 45.5 per cent
- SDPI: 6.6 per cent
The survey says this suggests young Muslim voters may have moved from Congress to SDPI.
26 to 40 years
This is the largest voter group.
- Congress: 47.4 per cent
- BJP: 43.5 per cent
- SDPI: 6.4 per cent
41 to 60 years
Congress is believed to have benefited from sympathy votes linked to Shamanur.
- Congress: 52.1 per cent
- BJP: 41.7 per cent
- SDPI: 4.7 per cent
Above 60 years
BJP appears stronger among senior voters.
- BJP: 51.0 per cent
- Congress: 44.4 per cent
- SDPI: 3.7 per cent
Factors helping Congress
The survey listed the following advantages for Congress:
- Sympathy factor after Shamanur’s death
- Voter preference towards ruling party
- Influence of Mallikarjun-Prabha couple
- Congress victory in Lok Sabha election
Factors helping BJP
The survey listed the following advantages for BJP:
- Anti-incumbency against Congress government
- Anger among Muslims hurting Congress
- BJP fielding a Dalit candidate
The survey observed that while SDPI gained directly from Muslim anger, BJP gained indirectly because Congress lost votes.
Candidate-wise estimate
The survey projects:
- Congress candidate Samarth Mallikarjun: 43% to 51%
- BJP candidate Srinivas T. Dasakariyappa: 42% to 50%
- SDPI candidate Afsar Kodlipete: around 6%
- Others: around 1%
Margin expected to shrink sharply
Congress had won the 2023 election by a huge margin of 27,888 votes.
This time, the survey projects Congress may be ahead by only 1,500 to 2600 votes.
It added that since the margin appears extremely narrow, the possibility of a surprise result cannot be ruled out.
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Several Gurugram schools receive hoax bomb threats
Gurugram (PTI): Several Gurugram schools received another hoax bomb threat emails on Wednesday morning, prompting police to launch searches on the premises.
Police said the email was sent by the 'Khalistan National Army', with threats issued to Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini to declare April 29 as the "40th Khalistan Declaration Day". It also threatened to bomb the Red Fort in Delhi.
Police said it was a hoax as no suspicious items were found after an intensive search.
Several schools, including Shri Ram, Amity, and the HDFC school, received threatening emails at 8.33 am, when classes had already begun, police said.
The school administrations became aware of the threats around 9 am and immediately informed the police, a senior police officer said.
The schools immediately implemented emergency protocols, with many declaring a holiday and asking parents to take their children home safely, the officer said.
A large number of anxious parents gathered outside the schools, as police and bomb squad teams reached the spots and started checks.
"Around 10 schools have approached the police from morning until now over bomb threats. Police teams are alert, and searches are underway on all the premises", the officer said.
As soon as the information about this email was received, police in Gurugram and Delhi swung into action and started investigation.
Schools immediately implemented emergency protocols upon receiving the mail. Many schools declared a holiday and sent messages to parents, asking them to take their children home. Large crowds of parents gathered outside the schools.
The schools were sanitised by sending a bomb disposal squad as well as a dog squad.
A senior police officer said that police teams thoroughly searched the school premises, classrooms, buildings, and surrounding areas. No suspicious objects or explosive materials were found during the investigation.
"Police teams are seriously investigating the entire matter. Cyber experts are being consulted to determine the authenticity of the email, its source, and the identity of the sender", added the officer.
This is the third time since January that schools have received fake bomb threats.
In March, at least a dozen schools in the city received bomb threat emails, which later turned out to be hoaxes.
Similarly, on January 28, as many as 13 schools received hoax bomb threats via email, forcing authorities to evacuate campuses and suspend classes.
Last month, police arrested a Bangladeshi national whose email ID was allegedly used to make a bomb threat for some payment.
