Novel coronavirus may resemble common cold in future, scientists predict
New Delhi: SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may resemble the mild cold-causing coronaviruses that currently circulate in humans if it becomes endemic and most people are exposed in childhood, according to a study.
The modeling study, published on Tuesday in the journal Science, is based on the research of the four common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-1.
The analysis of the immunological and epidemiological data for these viruses helped the researchers to develop a model to predict the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic when the virus circulates in the general population.
The researchers noted that four common cold-causing coronaviruses have been circulating in humans for a long time and almost everyone is infected at a young age.
Natural infection in childhood provides immunity that protects people later in life against severe disease, but it doesn't prevent periodic reinfection, said Jennie Lavine, from Emory University in the US, first author of the study.
The research suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 may become a disease of early childhood, where the first infection occurs between 3 and 5 years old, and the disease itself would be mild.
Older individuals could still become infected, but their childhood infections would provide immune protection against severe disease, according to the researchers.
How fast this shift comes depends on how fast the virus spreads and what kind of immune response the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines induce, they said.
The model suggests that if the vaccines induce short-lived protection against becoming reinfected but reduce the severity of the disease, as is the case with other endemic coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 may become endemic more quickly.
"This model assumes immunity to SARS-CoV-2 works similar to other human coronaviruses. We don't really know what it would be like if someone got one of the other coronaviruses for the first time as an adult, rather than as a child, Lavine said.
The model predicts that the infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 may fall below that of seasonal influenza (0.1 percent), once an endemic steady-state is reached.
"We are in uncharted territory, but a key take-home message from the study is that immunological indicators suggest that fatality rates and the critical need for broad-scale vaccination may wane in the near term," said Ottar Bjornstad, a professor, and epidemiologist at Penn State.
He noted that maximum effort should be on weathering this virgin pandemic en route to endemicity.
A safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 could save hundreds of thousands of lives in the first year or two of vaccine roll-out, but continued mass vaccination may be less critical once SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, the researchers said.
Targeted vaccination in vulnerable subpopulations may still save lives, they said.
The researchers also noted that if primary infections of children are mild when the virus becomes endemic, widespread vaccination may not be necessary.
However, if primary infections become severe in children, as in the case of more deadly but contained coronaviruses such as MERS, childhood vaccinations should be continued, the added.
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Modi should leverage his ties with world leaders to de-escalate war in West Asia: Omar Abdullah
Jammu (PTI): Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Monday said India can play a meaningful role in de-escalation in West Asia, given Prime Minister Narendra Modi's strong relations with the warring countries and their neighbours.
He said Pakistan was leveraging ties with Iran and the United States, and that any effort towards ending the war should be welcomed.
"As I said in the House (Assembly), we would like the war to end as soon as possible. The role that the prime minister can play may not be possible for anyone else because of his good relations with all these countries," Abdullah told reporters on the sidelines of a function here.
He, however, said any escalation would not be easy to manage.
"Any such move by US President Donald Trump, despite the long history of Iran resisting external domination, would not be easy," the chief minister said.
Asked about Pakistan mediating in the war, he said, "I will simply say that if any country can play a role in preventing this war, no one should have any objection to it."
He added, "I will repeat what I said … our prime minister has good and close relations with all countries — whether it is Israel, the United States, Iran, or the countries around Iran. If those relationships can be used to make some progress and help ease the situation, it would be a good thing."
Abdullah said attacks by terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed in India, as suggested by a report from the United States, are not unlikely.
Meanwhile, he asserted that any efforts to end the war, be it from Pakistan, must not be resisted.
"Pakistan is using its good relations with Iran and the United States to its advantage, and it has done so. How can we object to that? If that angle helps in stopping the war, would you want them not to act and let the war continue? We want the war to stop. If any country can play a role in that, it should. And if we can play an even better role, then we should do so," he said.
On unemployment in J-K, the chief minister said the issue cannot be resolved overnight, and government jobs alone are not the solution.
He stressed the need to explore alternative avenues, highlighting the importance of Mission Yuva in promoting entrepreneurship.
"Mission Yuva provides not just funding but also support in preparing DPRs and post-startup assistance, such as marketing. In just nine months, distributing Rs 1,000 crore and approving numerous schemes is a significant achievement," he said.
Abdullah credited the coordination between the government and Jammu and Kashmir Bank for the scheme's progress.
