Novel coronavirus may resemble common cold in future, scientists predict
New Delhi: SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may resemble the mild cold-causing coronaviruses that currently circulate in humans if it becomes endemic and most people are exposed in childhood, according to a study.
The modeling study, published on Tuesday in the journal Science, is based on the research of the four common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-1.
The analysis of the immunological and epidemiological data for these viruses helped the researchers to develop a model to predict the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic when the virus circulates in the general population.
The researchers noted that four common cold-causing coronaviruses have been circulating in humans for a long time and almost everyone is infected at a young age.
Natural infection in childhood provides immunity that protects people later in life against severe disease, but it doesn't prevent periodic reinfection, said Jennie Lavine, from Emory University in the US, first author of the study.
The research suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 may become a disease of early childhood, where the first infection occurs between 3 and 5 years old, and the disease itself would be mild.
Older individuals could still become infected, but their childhood infections would provide immune protection against severe disease, according to the researchers.
How fast this shift comes depends on how fast the virus spreads and what kind of immune response the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines induce, they said.
The model suggests that if the vaccines induce short-lived protection against becoming reinfected but reduce the severity of the disease, as is the case with other endemic coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 may become endemic more quickly.
"This model assumes immunity to SARS-CoV-2 works similar to other human coronaviruses. We don't really know what it would be like if someone got one of the other coronaviruses for the first time as an adult, rather than as a child, Lavine said.
The model predicts that the infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 may fall below that of seasonal influenza (0.1 percent), once an endemic steady-state is reached.
"We are in uncharted territory, but a key take-home message from the study is that immunological indicators suggest that fatality rates and the critical need for broad-scale vaccination may wane in the near term," said Ottar Bjornstad, a professor, and epidemiologist at Penn State.
He noted that maximum effort should be on weathering this virgin pandemic en route to endemicity.
A safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 could save hundreds of thousands of lives in the first year or two of vaccine roll-out, but continued mass vaccination may be less critical once SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, the researchers said.
Targeted vaccination in vulnerable subpopulations may still save lives, they said.
The researchers also noted that if primary infections of children are mild when the virus becomes endemic, widespread vaccination may not be necessary.
However, if primary infections become severe in children, as in the case of more deadly but contained coronaviruses such as MERS, childhood vaccinations should be continued, the added.
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Russian military hardware, spare parts for Indian military to be manufactured in India
New Delhi (PTI): Russia agreed to encourage joint manufacturing in India of military hardware and spare parts for maintenance of Russian-origin arms and defence equipment.
Ways to bolster overall bilateral defence cooperation figured prominently during summit talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday.
It has been a long-standing grievance of armed forces that the supply of critical spares and equipment from Russia takes a long time, affecting the maintenance of military systems procured from that country.
"Both sides agreed to encourage joint manufacturing in India of spare parts, components, aggregates and other products for maintenance of Russian origin arms and defence equipment under Make-in-India programme through transfer of technology," a joint statement said.
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It said both sides also agreed to set up joint ventures for meeting the needs of the Indian armed forces as well as subsequent export to mutually friendly third countries.
The joint statement said the India-Russia defence partnership is being reoriented to take up joint co-development and co-production of advanced defence technology and systems.
In their meeting on Thursday, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and his Russian counterpart Andrey Belousov resolved to expand bilateral defence cooperation.
In the meeting, the Indian side showed keen interest in procurement of additional batches of S-400 missile systems from Moscow to bolster its combat prowess.
In October 2018, India signed a USD 5 billion deal with Russia to buy five units of the S-400 air defence missile systems, notwithstanding a warning by the US that going ahead with the contract may invite US sanctions under the provisions of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
Three squadrons have already been delivered.
The S-400 systems played a crucial role during Operation Sindoor. India may also look at procuring the S-500 missile systems from Russia.
In the Modi-Putin talks, the two sides also agreed to continue jointly developing systems of bilateral trade settlements through the use of national currencies.
Additionally, the two sides agreed to continue their consultations on enabling the interoperability of the national payment systems, financial messaging systems, as well as central bank digital currency platforms.
Modi and Putin appreciated the ongoing intensification of the joint work on a free trade agreement on goods between India and the Eurasian Economic Union, covering sectors of mutual interest, the joint statement said.
They also directed both sides to intensify efforts in negotiations on a mutually beneficial agreement on the promotion and protection of investment, it said.
India and Russia also welcomed steps to ensure long-term supply of fertilisers to India and discussed the potential establishment of joint ventures in this area.
