IMF projects India's growth at 7.3 per cent in 2018, 7.4 per cent next year
Washington, Oct 9 : India is projected to grow at 7.3 per cent in 2018 and 7.4 per cent next year, the IMF said Tuesday, predicting that the country will regain the tag of the world's fastest growing major economy this year, surpassing China with more than 0.7 percentage points.
In 2017, India had clocked a 6.7 per cent growth rate.
In India, important reforms have been implemented in the recent years, including the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the inflation-targeting framework, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, and steps to liberalise foreign investment and make it easier to do business, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.
"India's growth is expected to increase to 7.3 per cent in 2018 and 7.4 per cent in 2019 (slightly lower than in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 2019, given the recent increase in oil prices and the tightening of global financial conditions), up from 6.7 per cent in 2017," it said in the WEO report.
This acceleration, the world body said, reflected a rebound from transitory shocks (the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the GST), with strengthening investment and robust private consumption.
India's medium-term growth prospects remain strong at 7 per cent, benefiting from the ongoing structural reforms, but have been marked down by just under a half percentage point relative to the April 2018 WEO, it said.
If projections are true, then India would regain the tag of the fastest growing major economy of the world, crossing China with more than 0.7 percentage points in 2018 and an impressive 1.2 percentage point growth lead in 2019.
China was the fastest growing economy in 2017 as it was ahead of India by 0.2 percentage points. For the record, the IMF has lowered the growth projections for both India and China by 0.4 per cent and 0.32 per cent, respectively, from its annual April's WEO.
Released in Bali during the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, the IMF's flagship WEO said its 2019 growth projection for China is lower than in April, given the latest round of US tariffs on Chinese imports, as are its projections for India.
In China, growth is projected to moderate from 6.9 per cent in 2017 to 6.6 per cent in 2018 and 6.2 per cent in 2019, reflecting a slowing external demand growth and necessary financial regulatory tightening, the report said.
The 0.2 percentage point downgrade to the 2019 growth forecast is attributable to the negative effect of recent tariff actions, assumed to be partially offset by policy stimulus, it said.
Over the medium term, growth is expected to gradually slow to 5.6 per cent as the economy continues to make the transition to a more sustainable growth path with continued financial de-risking and environmental controls, it noted.
"Owing to these changes, our international growth projections for both this year and next are downgraded to 3.7 per cent, 0.2 percentage point below our last assessments and the same rate achieved in 2017," the report said.
The growth rate of the US for 2018 is 2.9 per cent and that of 2019 has been powered to 2.5 per cent.
"Looking ahead, renewed impetus to reform labour and land markets, along with further improvements to the business climate are also crucial (in India)," it said.
According to the WEO, in India, reform priorities include reviving bank credit and enhancing the efficiency of credit provision by accelerating the cleanup of bank and corporate balance sheets and improving the governance of public sector banks.
In India, a high interest burden and risks from rising yields require continued focus on debt reduction to establish policy credibility and build buffers.
"These efforts should be supported by further reductions in subsidies and enhanced compliance with the Goods and Services Tax," the IMF report said.
It also said inflation in India is on the rise, estimated at 3.6 per cent in fiscal year 2017/18 and projected at 4.7 per cent in fiscal year 2018/19, compared to 4.5 per cent in fiscal year 2016/17, amid accelerating demand and rising fuel prices.
The report said that aggregate growth in the emerging market and developing economy group stabilised in the first half of 2018.
Emerging Asia continued to register strong growth, supported by a domestic demand-led pickup in the Indian economy from a four-year-low pace of expansion in 2017, even as activity in China moderated in the second quarter in response to regulatory tightening of the property sector and nonbank financial intermediation, it added.
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AI reshaping music, filmmaking in Kannada cinema
Bengaluru: Artificial Intelligence is slowly changing the way music and creativity are produced in the Kannada film industry, raising concerns among musicians, singers and technicians, The New Indian Express reported on Sunday.
Music composer, actor and director V Manohar reportedly said, AI is being used to write lyrics, especially in low-budget movies. Once lyrics are generated, AI can suggest thousands of tunes. It even asks whether the voice should be male or female. With one click, a complete song is ready.
“If this continues, singers and musicians will have less or no work in the coming days. But it may not succeed either. A few years ago, dubbing was allowed and people could watch movies in any language they preferred. But not many took to it as they wanted to watch a movie in the original,” TNIE quoted him as saying.
According to the report, Filmmaker Avinash U Shetty, a National Award winner, said resistance to new technology is not new. Those who resisted shifting from analogue to digital films years ago have now embraced it. The industry is now using only 10% of the AI potential. If it is scaled up, it can do unimaginable things. What we consider bad now, may not be after five years.
Highlighting the cost advantage, Sangamesh, an independent creator reportedly said, he made a three-minute video using AI for just Rs 4,500. Earlier, the same work would have cost nearly Rs 15 lakh. I finished the entire project in three days. The only expense was the AI software subscription, he said.
These days, it has become difficult to differentiate between the real and AI. AI is creating artistes. Scenes like war, big fights and dance can be shot with a lesser number of artistes. Then with the aid of visual effects and AI, you can achieve what you have in mind, he said.
Actor-director D P Raghuram felt that while AI has made an impact on music, it lacks emotional depth. Cinema earlier involved hard work and strong emotional connections. AI can help improve our work, but creativity should remain human, he reportedly said.
As per the report, earlier, Kannada cinema employed hundreds of junior artistes, who not only earned wages but also shared meals on sets and formed lasting bonds with stars like Dr Rajkumar, Vishnuvardhan and Ambareesh. Today, filmmakers fear that increasing dependence on AI could reduce such human connections, turning creativity into just another automated process.
