$4 Trillion Mirage: Unraveling India's false narrative of economic growth under Modi guarantee
In November, as part of the election campaigns, PM Narendra Modi made a promise called the "Modi Guarantee" to transform India into a developed country by 2047. The message that India is progressing rapidly under PM Modi and could become the fifth richest nation in the world was widely spread. However, on November 19, false information started circulating that India had already achieved the status of the fourth richest country in the world under PM Modi. This misinformation was spread by an unidentified source.
Surprisingly, influential figures in politics, government officials, ministers, and business leaders were involved in spreading this untrue story. Typically, false narratives that politically benefit PM Modi are not monitored or controlled by the Central Government, and this seems to be the case with this particular narrative at the time of writing this report.
Several prominent individuals, including Union Minister of Law and Justice Arjun Ram Meghwal, Gautam Adani (a controversial friend of PM Modi), Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra Devendra Fadnavis, Union Minister of Jal Shakti Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Union Minister G Kishan Reddy, and others, took part in spreading the false narrative that India had already become the fourth wealthiest country in the world. After receiving criticism for spreading falsehoods, some of them, such as Meghwal and Adani, have deleted their posts.
Adani had expressed congratulations to India, stating that within the next two years, the country is poised to become the third largest nation in terms of global GDP. This achievement would involve surpassing Japan, whose GDP stands at $4.4 trillion, as well as Germany, whose GDP is at $4.3 trillion. Adani's message conveyed optimism for India's continued progress, symbolized by the surge of the Tricolour flag, while also expressing patriotic sentiments with the phrase "Jai Hind."
Many people continue to post on social media, spreading rumors and circulating narratives in India, particularly in election-bound Rajasthan and Telangana, in order to sway voters in favor of PM Modi. The BJP is competing in the state elections using PM Modi's name.
Rajasthan's election campaign is coming to an end soon, on November 23rd. The focus of the campaign is still on development, with the Congress party highlighting the social development carried out by CM Ashok Gehlot's government. On the other hand, PM Modi and BJP leaders accuse the Congress of neglecting development and engaging in corruption wherever they are in power. This false narrative of growth was previously propagated in Chhattisgarh and is now being spread in Rajasthan, with Union Minister Shekhawat, who hails from Rajasthan, being one of the main participants. The BJP is countering the Congress's development narrative with its own false narrative of development in Rajasthan.
Fake screenshots containing alleged live GDP data from over 190 countries were circulated, falsely depicting India as having a GDP of over $4 trillion, making it the fourth largest economy. It is noteworthy that the Indian government has not made any official statement regarding this matter, allowing the false narrative to continue circulating.The true origin of this false narrative remains unknown. Neither national nor international institutions have confirmed or denied the figures presented. Despite this, the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra not only shared this narrative but also attributed the alleged rapid growth to PM Narendra Modi's leadership, which was actually untrue.
Furthermore, it is important to mention that India is scheduled to release its official GDP data for the quarter ending September 2023 by the end of November. The Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has reported that the GDP at current prices experienced a growth of 8% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, reaching Rs 70.67 lakh crore compared to Rs 65.43 lakh crore.
According to economists analyzing government data, India might surpass the $4 trillion mark in its economy around 2024-25. However, IMF data suggests that India, aiming to become a $5 trillion economy, may only achieve this goal by 2026-27, contingent upon favorable economic conditions and mitigating potential risks.
From a political perspective, the rumor mill has artfully constructed a false narrative of economic growth under PM Modi to the extent that many individuals, without questioning, fail to ask a simple question - if India has become the fourth wealthiest country in the world, why is the PM still emphasizing the "Garib Kalyan Ann Yojna"(giving little food to the poor for their welfare ) (PMGKAY) or the scheme for the welfare of the poor? During the election campaign, PM Modi announced, in violation of the election code, that free ration would be extended until 2028, covering a period of five years. However, it raises a valid question as to why over 80 crore people in the country are unable to afford their own meals and require free foodgrains if India is experiencing rapid economic growth under PM Modi's leadership.
In this context, PM Modi's guarantee should be understood as a situation where there is a significant opportunity for the wealthy few to amass great wealth while leaving the general population impoverished. It can be compared to a feudalistic policy where token benevolence is shown by providing some basic necessities to the poor, but the real wealth and power are reserved for a select few. The very name of PMGKAY suggests that PM Modi is more focused on providing limited assistance to the poor for their well-being, rather than actively working towards eradicating poverty through concrete programs.
India remains the country with the highest number of people living in poverty. According to the National Food Security Act, 2013, a total of 81.35 crore individuals were supposed to be covered, including 75% of the rural population and 50% of the urban population. This coverage was determined based on the Census Data of 2011.However, it is quite alarming to discover that even after 10 years, the identification of all the individuals in need under the Act remains incomplete. As per the latest information from the Press Information Bureau (PIB) posted on November 15, shortly after the conclusion of the election for the second phase, only around 80.48 crore individuals have been identified under the PMGKAY scheme.
The recent release has sparked doubts regarding PM Modi's announcement made approximately 10 days ago during an election rally in Chhattisgarh, where he stated that free ration would be extended until 2028. Surprisingly, the PIB release does not make any mention of this announcement and simply states that the free ration scheme will be effective "for a period of one year beginning from 1st January 2023."
According to the World Bank, over 97 crore people in India are unable to afford nutritious food. This raises questions about what the Modi Guarantee truly means for the common people. Since 2014, PM Modi and his RSS-BJP party have made a series of guarantees, starting with the promise of "Achche Din" (Good days), followed by numerous others, many of which have proven to be false. Moreover, there is the dissemination of a false narrative of economic growth through the rumor mill, claiming that India has already surpassed the $4 trillion mark in its economy. The electorate must take note of these factors as it is an election year, with ongoing state elections serving as the semi-finals and the final Lok Sabha election taking place in 2024, where the BJP and PM Modi will be aiming for their third term.
Girish LingannaAerospace & Defence Analyst
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Deep societal faultlines persist despite 75 years of independence: Justice Ujjal Bhuyan
Judge cites denial of home to Muslim girl, opposition to Dalit women cooking mid-day meals
Hyderabad, February 23, 2026: Supreme Court judge Justice Ujjal Bhuyan has said that despite repeated affirmations of constitutional morality by courts, deep societal faultlines rooted in caste and religious discrimination continue to shape everyday realities in India.
Speaking at a seminar on “Constitutional Morality and the Role of District Judiciary” organised by the Telangana Judges Association and the Telangana State Judicial Academy in Hyderabad, Justice Bhuyan reflected on the gap between constitutional ideals and social practices.
He cited a recent instance involving his daughter’s friend, a PhD scholar at a private university in Noida, who was denied accommodation in South Delhi after her surname revealed her Muslim identity. According to Justice Bhuyan, the landlady bluntly informed her that no accommodation was available once her religious background became known.
In another example from Odisha, he referred to resistance by some parents to the government’s mid-day meal programme because the food was prepared by Dalit women employed as cooks. He noted that some parents had objected aggressively and refused to allow their children to consume meals cooked by members of the Scheduled Caste community.
Describing these incidents as “the tip of the iceberg,” Justice Bhuyan said they reveal how far society remains from the benchmark of constitutional morality even 75 years into the Republic. He observed that while the Constitution lays down standards of equality and dignity, the morality practised within homes and communities often diverges sharply from those values.
He emphasised that constitutional morality requires governance through the rule of law rather than the rule of popular opinion. Referring to the evolution of the doctrine through judicial decisions, he cited Naz Foundation v Union of India, in which the Delhi High Court read down Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code, holding that popular morality cannot restrict fundamental rights under Article 21. Though the judgment was later overturned in Suresh Kumar Koushal v Naz Foundation, the Supreme Court ultimately restored and expanded the principle in Navtej Singh Johar v Union of India, affirming that constitutional morality must prevail over majoritarian views.
“In our constitutional scheme, it is the constitutionality of the issue before the court that is relevant, not the dominant or popular view,” he said.
Justice Bhuyan also addressed the functioning of the district judiciary, underlining that trial courts are the first point of contact for most litigants and form the foundation of the justice delivery system. He stressed that due importance must be given to the recording of evidence and adjudication of bail matters.
Highlighting the role of High Courts, he said their supervisory jurisdiction under Article 227 of the Constitution is intended as a shield to correct grave jurisdictional errors, not as a mechanism to substitute the discretion or factual appreciation of trial judges.
He recalled that several distinguished judges, including Justice H R Khanna, Justice A M Ahmadi, and Justice Fathima Beevi, began their careers in the district judiciary.
On representation within the judicial system, Justice Bhuyan noted that Telangana has made significant strides in gender inclusion. Out of a sanctioned strength of 655 judicial officers in the Telangana Judicial Service, 478 are currently serving, of whom 283 are women, exceeding 50 per cent representation. He added that members of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, minority communities, and persons with disabilities are also represented in the state’s judiciary.
He observed that greater representation of women, marginalised communities, persons with disabilities, and sexual minorities would help make the judiciary more inclusive and reflective of India’s diversity. “The judiciary must represent all the colours of the rainbow and become a rainbow institution,” he said.
Justice Bhuyan also referred to the recent restoration by the Supreme Court of the requirement of a minimum three years of practice at the Bar for entry-level judicial posts. While acknowledging that the requirement ensures practical exposure, he cautioned that its impact on women aspirants, especially those from rural or small-town backgrounds facing social and financial constraints, would need to be carefully observed over time.
Concluding his address, he reiterated that the justice system must strive to bridge the gap between constitutional ideals and lived realities, ensuring that the rule of law remains paramount.
