IMF cuts India's GDP growth forecast to 9.5 pc for FY22
Washington, Jul 27: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its economic growth forecast for India to 9.5 per cent for the fiscal year to March 31, 2022 as the onset of a severe second COVID-19 wave cut into recovery momentum.
This forecast for 2021-22 is lower than the 12.5 per cent growth in GDP that IMF had projected in April before the second wave took a grip.
For 2022-23, IMF expects economic growth of 8.5 per cent, larger than the 6.9 per cent it had projected in April.
"Growth prospects in India have been downgraded following the severe second COVID wave during March-May and expected slow recovery in confidence from that setback," IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).
India's economy is gradually recovering from a deep contraction in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2021 (7.3 per cent) and a subsequent severe second wave of COVID-19.
IMF joins a host of global and domestic agencies which have cut India's growth estimates for the current fiscal. Last month, S&P Global Ratings projected a 9.5 per cent GDP growth in the current fiscal and 7.8 per cent in 2022-23.
While World Bank sees GDP growth at 8.3 per cent from April 2021 to March 2022, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) last week downgraded India's economic growth forecast to 10 per cent from 11 per cent estimated in April.
Another US-based rating agency Moody's has projected India clocking 9.3 per cent growth in the current fiscal ending March 2022. For 2021 calendar year, Moody's has cut the growth estimate sharply to 9.6 per cent.
The GDP, which shrank from USD 2.87 trillion in 2019-20 to USD 2.66 trillion in the following year, is estimated to reach around USD 4 trillion in 2024-25.
Overall, the global economy is projected to grow 6 per cent in 2021 and 4.9 per cent in 2022. The 2021 global growth forecast is unchanged from the April 2021 WEO, but with offsetting revisions, the report said.
"The global economic recovery continues, but with a widening gap between advanced economies and many emerging markets and developing economies.
"Our latest global growth forecast of 6 percent for 2021 is unchanged from the previous outlook, but the composition has changed," IMF's Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said in a blog post released along with the WEO.
Gopinath said IMF estimates the pandemic has reduced per capita incomes in advanced economies by 2.8 per cent, relative to pre-pandemic trends over 2020-2022, compared with an annual per capita loss of 6.3 per cent a year for emerging market and developing economies (excluding China).
"These revisions reflect important extent differences in pandemic developments as the delta variant takes over. Close to 40 percent of the population in advanced economies has been fully vaccinated, compared with 11 percent in emerging market economies, and a tiny fraction in low-income developing countries," she wrote.
"Faster-than expected vaccination rates and return to normalcy have led to upgrades, while lack of access to vaccines and renewed waves of COVID-19 cases in some countries, notably India, have led to downgrades," Gopinath added.
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Bihar: Over 150 children fall ill after consuming 'mid-day meal' in Saharsa
Saharsa (PTI): More than 150 children were taken ill after allegedly consuming food that was part of the mid-day meal in a school in Bihar’s Saharsa district, a senior official said on Thursday.
The incident occurred at a middle school in Baluaha village of the district.
The official said that 115 children were undergoing treatment at the Sadar Hospital, while around 50 students were admitted to Mahishi Public Health Centre.
“We received information that several children fell ill after consuming the mid-day meal in Baluaha. The children were initially treated at the primary health centre, but later, many were referred to the Sadar Hospital,” Saharsa District Magistrate Deepesh Kumar told reporters.
“According to doctors, the health condition of the children has improved, but they will be kept under observation for some time. There is no need to panic. Some kids are having mild fever. They are being treated accordingly,” Kumar said.
Meanwhile, family members of some children claimed that a snake was found in the container in which cooked pulses was stored at the school.
Of the 545 students present in the school, 200 had already eaten their meals by the time the snake was spotted, and later complained of stomach ache and vomiting, they said.
Regarding the claims, the DM said food samples have been collected from the school.
“We will be able to comment on this only after the results of the tested samples arrive,” he said.
