IMF cuts India's GDP growth forecast to 9.5 pc for FY22
Washington, Jul 27: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its economic growth forecast for India to 9.5 per cent for the fiscal year to March 31, 2022 as the onset of a severe second COVID-19 wave cut into recovery momentum.
This forecast for 2021-22 is lower than the 12.5 per cent growth in GDP that IMF had projected in April before the second wave took a grip.
For 2022-23, IMF expects economic growth of 8.5 per cent, larger than the 6.9 per cent it had projected in April.
"Growth prospects in India have been downgraded following the severe second COVID wave during March-May and expected slow recovery in confidence from that setback," IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).
India's economy is gradually recovering from a deep contraction in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2021 (7.3 per cent) and a subsequent severe second wave of COVID-19.
IMF joins a host of global and domestic agencies which have cut India's growth estimates for the current fiscal. Last month, S&P Global Ratings projected a 9.5 per cent GDP growth in the current fiscal and 7.8 per cent in 2022-23.
While World Bank sees GDP growth at 8.3 per cent from April 2021 to March 2022, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) last week downgraded India's economic growth forecast to 10 per cent from 11 per cent estimated in April.
Another US-based rating agency Moody's has projected India clocking 9.3 per cent growth in the current fiscal ending March 2022. For 2021 calendar year, Moody's has cut the growth estimate sharply to 9.6 per cent.
The GDP, which shrank from USD 2.87 trillion in 2019-20 to USD 2.66 trillion in the following year, is estimated to reach around USD 4 trillion in 2024-25.
Overall, the global economy is projected to grow 6 per cent in 2021 and 4.9 per cent in 2022. The 2021 global growth forecast is unchanged from the April 2021 WEO, but with offsetting revisions, the report said.
"The global economic recovery continues, but with a widening gap between advanced economies and many emerging markets and developing economies.
"Our latest global growth forecast of 6 percent for 2021 is unchanged from the previous outlook, but the composition has changed," IMF's Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said in a blog post released along with the WEO.
Gopinath said IMF estimates the pandemic has reduced per capita incomes in advanced economies by 2.8 per cent, relative to pre-pandemic trends over 2020-2022, compared with an annual per capita loss of 6.3 per cent a year for emerging market and developing economies (excluding China).
"These revisions reflect important extent differences in pandemic developments as the delta variant takes over. Close to 40 percent of the population in advanced economies has been fully vaccinated, compared with 11 percent in emerging market economies, and a tiny fraction in low-income developing countries," she wrote.
"Faster-than expected vaccination rates and return to normalcy have led to upgrades, while lack of access to vaccines and renewed waves of COVID-19 cases in some countries, notably India, have led to downgrades," Gopinath added.
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Karnataka offers extensive incentives in its proposed IT policy
Bengaluru (PTI): Karnataka has proposed a new Information Technology Policy for 2025–2030, offering extensive financial and non-financial incentives aimed at accelerating investments, strengthening innovation and expanding the state's tech footprint beyond Bengaluru.
The Karnataka Cabinet gave its nod to the policy 2025–2030 with an outlay of Rs 445.50 crore on Thursday after the Finance Department accorded its approval.
The policy introduces 16 incentives across five enabler categories, nine of which are entirely new, with a distinctive push to support companies setting up or expanding in emerging cities.
Alongside financial support, the government is also offering labour-law relaxations, round-the-clock operational permissions and industry-ready human capital programmes to make Karnataka a globally competitive 'AI-native' destination.
According to the policy, units located outside Bengaluru will gain access to a wide suite of benefits, including research and development and IP creation incentives, internship reimbursements, talent relocation support and recruitment assistance.
The benefits also include EPF reimbursement, faculty development support, rental assistance, certification subsidies, electricity tariff rebates, property tax reimbursement, telecom infrastructure support, and assistance for events and conferences.
Bengaluru Urban will receive a focused set of six research and development and talent-oriented incentives, while Indian Global Capability Centres (GCCs) operating in the state will be brought under the incentive net.
Incentive caps and eligibility thresholds have been raised, and the policy prioritises growth-focused investments for both new and expanding units.
Beyond incentives, the government focuses on infrastructure and innovation interventions.
A flagship proposal in the policy is the creation of Techniverse -- integrated, technology-enabled enclaves developed through a public-private partnership model inside future Global Innovation Districts.
These campuses will offer plug-and-play facilities, artificial intelligence and machine learning and cybersecurity labs, advanced testbeds, experience centres, and disaster-resistant command centres.
There will also be a Statewide Digital Hub Grid and a Global Test Bed Infrastructure Network, linking public and private research and development, and innovation facilities across Karnataka.
The government has proposed a Women Global Tech Missions Fellowship for 1,000 mid-career women technologists, an IT Talent Return Programme to absorb experienced professionals returning from abroad, and broad-based skill and faculty development reimbursements.
Shared corporate transport routes in Bengaluru and tier-two cities will be designed with Bengaluru Metropolitan Transport Corporation and other transport entities to support worker mobility.
The government said the policy is the outcome of an extensive research and consultation process involving TCS, Infosys, Wipro, IBM, HCL, Tech Mahindra, Cognizant, HP, Google, Accenture and NASSCOM, along with sector experts and stakeholder groups.
It estimates an outlay of Rs 967.12 crore over five years, comprising Rs 754.62 crore for incentives and Rs 212.50 crore for interventions such as Techniverse campuses, digital grid development, global outreach missions and talent programmes.
