Iran-Israel War: India ramps up oil imports from Russia, US in June
New Delhi (PTI): India has ramped up purchases of Russian oil in June, importing more than the combined volumes from Middle Eastern suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, amid market volatility triggered by Israel's dramatic attack on Iran.
The US military struck three sites in Iran early Sunday, directly joining Israel which first struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 13.
Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
India's oil imports from Russia were 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in May.
Imports from the United States also rose to 439,000 bpd in June, a big jump from 280,000 bpd purchased in the previous month.
Full-month projections for imports from the Middle East stand at around 2 million bpd, lower than the previous month's buying, according to Kpler.
India, the world's third-largest oil-importing and consuming nation, bought from abroad around 5.1 million barrels of crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries.
India, which has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East, began importing a large volume of oil from Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This was primarily because Russian oil was available at a significant discount to other international benchmarks due to Western sanctions and some European countries shunning purchases.
This led to India's imports of Russian oil seeing a dramatic rise, growing from less than 1 per cent of its total crude oil imports to a staggering 40-44 per cent in a short period.
The conflict in the Middle East has so far not impacted oil supplies.
"While supplies remain unaffected so far, vessel activity suggests a decline in crude loadings from the Middle East in the coming days," Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler, told PTI.
"Shipowners are hesitant to send empty tankers (ballasters) into the Gulf, with the number of such vessels dropping from 69 to just 40, and (Middle East and Gulf) MEG-bound signals from the Gulf of Oman halving."
This suggests that current MEG supplies are likely to tighten in the near term, potentially triggering future adjustments in India's sourcing strategy, he said.
The Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south, serves as the main route for oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Many liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, especially from Qatar, also pass through the strait.
As the military conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, Tehran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and a major LNG export transit. India imports about 40 per cent of all its oil and about half of its gas through the narrow Strait.
According to Kpler, concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz have intensified following Israel's pre-emptive strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Iranian hardliners have threatened closure, and state media have warned of oil spiking to USD 400 per barrel.
"Yet, Kpler analysis assigns a very low probability to a full blockade, citing strong disincentives for Iran," Ritolia said.
This is because China, Iran's largest oil customer (which imports 47 per cent of its seaborne crude from the Middle East Gulf), would be directly impacted. Also, Iran's reliance on Hormuz for oil exports via Kharg Island (handles 96 per cent of its exports) makes self-blockade counterproductive.
Additionally, Tehran has made deliberate efforts over the past two years to rebuild ties with key regional actors, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which rely heavily on the Strait for exports and have publicly condemned Israel's actions. Sabotaging their flows would risk unraveling those diplomatic gains.
A closure would also provoke international military retaliation. Any Iranian naval build-up would be detectable in advance, likely triggering a preemptive US and allied response. At most, isolated sabotage efforts could disrupt flows for 24-48 hours, the estimated time required for US forces to neutralise Iran's conventional naval assets, according to Kpler.
Any such move would provoke military retaliation and diplomatic fallout with Oman, undermining Iran's own backchannels with the US.
Ritolia said India's import strategy has evolved significantly over the past two years.
Russian oil (Urals, ESPO, Sokol) is logistically detached from Hormuz, flowing via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, or Pacific Ocean.
Indian refiners have built refining and payment flexibility, while optimizing runs for a wider crude slate. Even US, West African, and Latin American flows - though costlier - are increasingly viable backup options.
"India's June volumes from Russia and the US confirm this resilience-oriented mix," he said. "If conflict deepens or there is any short-term disruption in Hormuz, Russian barrels will rise in share, offering both physical availability and pricing relief. India may pivot harder toward the US, Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil, albeit at higher freight costs.
Also, India may tap its strategic reserves (covering 9-10 days of imports) to bridge any shortfall.
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Cong leader Prithviraj Chavan defiant after facing verbal missiles on Op Sindoor remarks
Mumbai (PTI): Despite facing criticism, senior Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan on Wednesday stood by his controversial comments that India faced a "total defeat" in aerial fight with Pakistan on the first day of Operation Sindoor on May 7.
The former Union minister refused to apologise for his comments on the Indian military operation against terror hubs in Pakistan and PoK in aftermath of massacre of tourists at Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir in April.
Talking to reporters in Pune on Tuesday, Chavan claimed India faced a "total defeat in the aerial fight (with Pakistan) on May 7 which lasted for half-an-hour".
"One may believe this or not. After that the Indian Air Force got grounded and not a single aircraft took flight that day.... be it Gwalior, Bhatinda or Sirsa, there was a possibility of aircraft being shot down, so our complete Air Force was grounded," the former Maharashtra chief minister had said.
Hitting out at Chavan, Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde accused the Congress of speaking the language of Pakistan. He said questioning the military action was akin to demoralising the morale of armed forces.
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"The criticism does not stem from the love of the nation, but love for Pakistan," said the chief leader of the Shiv Sena, a key constituent of the BJP-led NDA.
Chavan, however, remained defiant.
"There is no question of apologising. The Constitution has given me the right to ask questions," the Congress veteran asserted.
Chavan also questioned the need of having a 12-lakh strong Army when future wars will be about aerial combats and missiles. "During Operation Sindoor we saw that there was no movement of the Army even for a kilometre," he had said.
BJP Lok Sabha MP and spokesperson Sambit Patra said Chavan's remarks are loaded with sedition.
"He (Chavan) has refused to apologise. The Indian armed forces struck 100 kms inside the Pakistan territory and destroyed 11 air strips (of the Pakistani Air Force). He made remarks that the Indian Army did not even move an inch (during the military operation). This is nothing but a statement full of sedition, a statement of a traitor," Patra said, lashing out at the Congress leader.
The BJP spokesperson maintained the Congress appears to be standing with Chavan and alleged the Opposition party is playing into foreign hands.
Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra should apologise for it, he added.
Union minister Giriraj Singh of the BJP insisted it was not right to devalue the valour of Indian armed forces.
Samajwadi Party MP Virendra Singh suggested that wherever armed forces are concerned, every Indian should be mindful of statements they make and ensure their comments do not demoralise the military.
Operation Sindoor was a result of "mistakes of politicians", he claimed.
TDP MP Krishna Devraylu said after the poll defeat in Bihar, the Congress is rattled and their leaders have been talking absurdly.
"Chavan's remarks are a prime example of this. This kind of disrespect to our armed forces is not necessary. If the Congress is angry with the NDA, it should show it in a different way and not drag armed forces into it," Devraylu opined.
AAP MP Ashok Mittal said such statements should not be made by any senior politician, especially by someone who has been a former chief minister.
The Indian armed forces registered a strong victory and destroyed terror launchpads in Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, Mittal added.
