Member of RBI's rate-setting panel questions world-beating GDP numbers
NEW DELHI: India probably overestimated manufacturing output while calculating economic growth that topped 8 per cent in the June quarter, according to a member of the central bank’s rate-setting panel.
The new gross domestic product series has mostly replaced the Annual Survey of Industries with corporate financial data for estimating manufacturing value added, according to an article Ravindra Dholakia, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, co-authored with R. Nagaraj and Manish Pandya in the latest edition of the Economic and Political Weekly. This has resulted in its higher share in GDP and a faster growth rate compared to the older series, they said.
Statistics ministry data on Friday showed manufacturing sector expanded 13.5 per cent in the three months to June, driving the broader economic growth by 8.2 per cent -- the fastest pace for any major economy. Finance minister Arun Jaitley attributed the economy’s performance to the government’s reforms and fiscal prudence amid uncertainty spawned by the trade spat between the US and China.
“Does the new series represent a fuller description of the manufacturing value added, or is it an overestimation?” the authors wrote.
Higher manufacturing growth rate gives “rise to serious doubts about the veracity of new estimates” and is at “variance with other macroeconomic correlates,” wrote Dholakia, an external member on the monetary policy committee and a management professor.
The Reserve Bank of India has maintained its full-year growth forecast at 7.4 per cent, while flagging risks from high oil prices and trade tensions turning into a currency war. The central bank increased policy rates twice since June to curb inflationary pressures.
Dholakia has been advocating lower interest rates to support growth and was the only member to oppose a rate increase at the August meeting.
courtesy : timesofindia.indiatimes.com
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“Goli maro…” slogan raised as ABVP-linked group disrupts play at University of Hyderabad
Hyderabad: A group allegedly linked to the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) disrupted a theatre performance at the University of Hyderabad on Sunday evening. The group is also accused of vandalising property and assaulting students.
Slogans such as “Desh ke gaddaron ko, goli maro…” were raised during the incident, according to eyewitnesses.
According to the Observer Post, the disruption happened as Mahesh Elkunchwar's play Holi was being staged at the Department of Theatre Arts' GB Hall. The group reportedly objected to certain portions of the play, claiming that some phrases hurt religious sentiments.
According to accounts from those present, the situation escalated when individuals forced their way into the venue after damaging fixtures and breaking glass panels outside the auditorium. Students attempting to intervene were reportedly assaulted, and a guest faculty member was allegedly threatened.
Several students sustained injuries and were provided initial treatment at the campus health centre before being shifted to a nearby hospital.
Police later arrived at the scene, brought the situation under control, and escorted those inside the hall to safety. Witnesses said tensions remained high, with some members of the group continuing to raise slogans during the evacuation.
