Member of RBI's rate-setting panel questions world-beating GDP numbers
NEW DELHI: India probably overestimated manufacturing output while calculating economic growth that topped 8 per cent in the June quarter, according to a member of the central bank’s rate-setting panel.
The new gross domestic product series has mostly replaced the Annual Survey of Industries with corporate financial data for estimating manufacturing value added, according to an article Ravindra Dholakia, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, co-authored with R. Nagaraj and Manish Pandya in the latest edition of the Economic and Political Weekly. This has resulted in its higher share in GDP and a faster growth rate compared to the older series, they said.
Statistics ministry data on Friday showed manufacturing sector expanded 13.5 per cent in the three months to June, driving the broader economic growth by 8.2 per cent -- the fastest pace for any major economy. Finance minister Arun Jaitley attributed the economy’s performance to the government’s reforms and fiscal prudence amid uncertainty spawned by the trade spat between the US and China.
“Does the new series represent a fuller description of the manufacturing value added, or is it an overestimation?” the authors wrote.
Higher manufacturing growth rate gives “rise to serious doubts about the veracity of new estimates” and is at “variance with other macroeconomic correlates,” wrote Dholakia, an external member on the monetary policy committee and a management professor.
The Reserve Bank of India has maintained its full-year growth forecast at 7.4 per cent, while flagging risks from high oil prices and trade tensions turning into a currency war. The central bank increased policy rates twice since June to curb inflationary pressures.
Dholakia has been advocating lower interest rates to support growth and was the only member to oppose a rate increase at the August meeting.
courtesy : timesofindia.indiatimes.com
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Assam to lift all cases against Koch Rajbongshis in Foreigners' Tribunals: CM Himanta Biswa Sarma
Guwahati, Apr 4 (PTI): The Assam cabinet has decided to lift all cases pending against people from the Koch Rajbongshi community in the Foreigners' Tribunals, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said on Friday.
They will also no longer carry the tag of 'D' or doubtful voters, he said.
''There are 28,000 cases pending in different Foreigners' Tribunals in the state against people of the community. The cabinet has taken a historic decision of lifting the cases with immediate effect,'' Sarma said at a press conference here after the cabinet meeting.
The government believes that the Koch Rajbongshis are an indigenous community of the state and they are an inextricable part of ''our social and cultural fabric'', he asserted.
The people of this community are poor and have suffered a lot over the years, he said.
''They will no longer carry the tag of foreigners or ‘D’ voters,'' the CM said.
Foreigners Tribunals are quasi-judicial bodies, particularly in Assam, established to determine if a person residing in India is a "foreigner" as defined by the Foreigners Act of 1946, based on the Foreigners (Tribunals) Order of 1964.
These tribunals are designed to address matters related to citizenship and the presence of “foreigners” in India, specifically focusing on cases where someone is suspected of being an illegal immigrant.
There are 100 Foreigners’ Tribunals across Assam.
The Koch Rajbongshis have a sizeable presence in Assam, West Bengal, Meghalaya, and parts of Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan, and they demand Scheduled Tribe status.
