Member of RBI's rate-setting panel questions world-beating GDP numbers
NEW DELHI: India probably overestimated manufacturing output while calculating economic growth that topped 8 per cent in the June quarter, according to a member of the central bank’s rate-setting panel.
The new gross domestic product series has mostly replaced the Annual Survey of Industries with corporate financial data for estimating manufacturing value added, according to an article Ravindra Dholakia, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, co-authored with R. Nagaraj and Manish Pandya in the latest edition of the Economic and Political Weekly. This has resulted in its higher share in GDP and a faster growth rate compared to the older series, they said.
Statistics ministry data on Friday showed manufacturing sector expanded 13.5 per cent in the three months to June, driving the broader economic growth by 8.2 per cent -- the fastest pace for any major economy. Finance minister Arun Jaitley attributed the economy’s performance to the government’s reforms and fiscal prudence amid uncertainty spawned by the trade spat between the US and China.
“Does the new series represent a fuller description of the manufacturing value added, or is it an overestimation?” the authors wrote.
Higher manufacturing growth rate gives “rise to serious doubts about the veracity of new estimates” and is at “variance with other macroeconomic correlates,” wrote Dholakia, an external member on the monetary policy committee and a management professor.
The Reserve Bank of India has maintained its full-year growth forecast at 7.4 per cent, while flagging risks from high oil prices and trade tensions turning into a currency war. The central bank increased policy rates twice since June to curb inflationary pressures.
Dholakia has been advocating lower interest rates to support growth and was the only member to oppose a rate increase at the August meeting.
courtesy : timesofindia.indiatimes.com
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Gangolli Police arrest couple in house robbery case within seven hours
Gangolli: In an operation, the Gangolli police arrested a couple accused of a house robbery within seven hours of the incident.
The accused, identified as Vinayak (41) and his wife Pramila (30) from Gujjadi, were taken into custody following a coordinated investigation by the police team.
The robbery took place on the morning of January 21 when a bag containing jewelry was stolen from a house near Trasi Beach. Among the stolen items were a 16-gram gold necklace, a 16-gram bangle, and three gold rings weighing 3 grams, with the total value of the jewelry estimated at Rs 2 lakh. The culprits fled the scene on a scooty.
Following the registration of the case at the Gangolli police station, SSI Harish R. and a team comprising officers Shantaram, Raju, Nagaraj, Raghavendra, Sandeep Kurani, Maruti Nayak, and Dinesh swiftly gathered intelligence and tracked down the suspects by 8 p.m. on the same day. The stolen gold ornaments and the vehicle used in the crime have been recovered.
The accused were presented before the court, and further legal proceedings are underway.
