Member of RBI's rate-setting panel questions world-beating GDP numbers
NEW DELHI: India probably overestimated manufacturing output while calculating economic growth that topped 8 per cent in the June quarter, according to a member of the central bank’s rate-setting panel.
The new gross domestic product series has mostly replaced the Annual Survey of Industries with corporate financial data for estimating manufacturing value added, according to an article Ravindra Dholakia, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, co-authored with R. Nagaraj and Manish Pandya in the latest edition of the Economic and Political Weekly. This has resulted in its higher share in GDP and a faster growth rate compared to the older series, they said.
Statistics ministry data on Friday showed manufacturing sector expanded 13.5 per cent in the three months to June, driving the broader economic growth by 8.2 per cent -- the fastest pace for any major economy. Finance minister Arun Jaitley attributed the economy’s performance to the government’s reforms and fiscal prudence amid uncertainty spawned by the trade spat between the US and China.
“Does the new series represent a fuller description of the manufacturing value added, or is it an overestimation?” the authors wrote.
Higher manufacturing growth rate gives “rise to serious doubts about the veracity of new estimates” and is at “variance with other macroeconomic correlates,” wrote Dholakia, an external member on the monetary policy committee and a management professor.
The Reserve Bank of India has maintained its full-year growth forecast at 7.4 per cent, while flagging risks from high oil prices and trade tensions turning into a currency war. The central bank increased policy rates twice since June to curb inflationary pressures.
Dholakia has been advocating lower interest rates to support growth and was the only member to oppose a rate increase at the August meeting.
courtesy : timesofindia.indiatimes.com
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Polling underway for 5 RS seats in Bihar
Patna (PTI): Voting is underway for five Rajya Sabha seats in Bihar on Monday, with five nominees from the ruling NDA and one from the opposition RJD contesting the biennial polls, an official said.
BJP national president Nitin Nabin, also the five-time MLA from Bankipur assembly seat, RJD's national working president Tejashwi Yadav, BJP MLA Maithili Thakur, and jailed JD(U) legislator Anant Singh, among others, cast their ballots.
The polling, which commenced at 9 am, will continue till 5 pm in the Bihar Assembly complex, where MLAs are casting their ballots, he said.
Counting will begin after 5 pm, and the results are expected to be declared the same day.
Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar and Nabin are among the NDA candidates. The other three nominees from the ruling coalition are Union Minister Ram Nath Thakur, Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) chief Upendra Kushwaha, both sitting members of the Rajya Sabha, and BJP's Shivesh Kumar, who is seeking a berth in the Upper House of Parliament for the first time.
Yadav, after casting his vote, said, "Our candidate Amarendra Dhari Singh will win as we have got support from the five MLAs of AIMIM and one BSP legislator."
Talking to reporters on Monday, JD(U)'s national working president Sanjay Kumar Jha said, "NDA's all five candidates will win. We don't care what opposition parties are claiming."
The AIMIM announced on Sunday that all five of its MLAs would support the RJD candidate in the Rajya Sabha polls.
Talking to reporters after casting his vote, Singh said, "If Nitish Kumar does not remain the CM, I will not contest polls next time. My children will contest elections."
Singh, the Mokama MLA, was arrested ahead of the assembly polls last year in connection with the killing of Dular Chand Yadav, a rival gangster who was supporting the local candidate of Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party.
Singh, who has since been unable to secure bail, was allowed to cast his vote on parole.
With numbers comfortably in favour of the NDA for four seats and marginally short for the fifth, the opposition forced an election by fielding the RJD's candidate.
The state administration has made adequate security arrangements to ensure a smooth election, an official said.
The NDA aims to win all five seats but needs support from three legislators from the opposition bench to achieve that.
The Grand Alliance kept its MLAs at a hotel in the state capital to prevent alleged poaching by rivals.
However, the NDA organised meetings with its legislators at the residences of ministers and senior leaders in the state's capital on Sunday.
The NDA enjoys a brute majority in the assembly, though its tally of 202 in the 243-member House falls three short of the number needed to secure all five Rajya Sabha seats.
To win a Rajya Sabha berth, one needs the support of at least 41 MLAs in the Bihar assembly.
