Pune, Jan 10: Shikhar Dhawan roared back to form with a muscular half-century in company of a sublime KL Rahul as India posted a competitive 201 for 6 against Sri Lanka despite a middle-order collapse in the third T20 International here on Friday.

Dhawan, who has been under pressure for some time smashed 52 off 36 balls (7x4; 1x6) in his 97-run opening stand with the in-form Rahul (54 off 36 balls, 5x4;1x6).

However, the hosts suffered a middle-order collapse with Sri Lankan wrist spinners Wanidu Hasaranga (1-27) and chinaman Lakshan Sandakan (3-35) spun their web around the batsmen on a flat track.

But Manish Pandey, playing his first game of the tournament, hit an unbeaten 31 off 18 balls and Shardul Thakur once again revelled as a lower-order pinch-hitter (22 not out off 8 balls; 1x4, 2x6) to ensure that the hosts crossed 200-run mark.

Rahul set the tone playing a cut shot off rival skipper Lasith Malinga for his first boundary. Dhawan got an early 'life', when Dasun Shanaka dropped one at deep square leg. Rahul, then hit two consecutive boundaries, both drives, off Angelo Mathews as India raced to 22/0.

The visitors introduced off-spinner Dhananjaya De Silva in the fourth over, but Dhawan welcomed him with a four over long-on. Rahul then dispatched a Silva full-toss over long leg for a maximum as India amassed 13 runs in it.

Dhawan changed his gears as he hammered two boundaries in fifth over as India reached team total of 50.

Making optimum use of the life, Dhawan smashed back-to-back fours, slashing one over backward point and another through extra cover off pacer Lahiru Kumara. The duo was coasting along well as India after 9 overs were 82/0.

After two quiet overs, Dhawan smashed Hasaranga over deep mid-wicket for a six.

Soon after completing his 10th T20I fifty, Dhawan perished after giving a sitter to Dhanushka Gunathilika off Sandakan at deep mid-wicket. However his innings certainly will make Virat Kohli's choice of Rohit Sharma's partner difficult for the upcoming Australia series.

Sanju Samson (6) got his much-awaited chance as he was promoted at No 3 and smashed a six on the first ball but was trapped in the front by Hasaranga as India slumped to 106/2.

Sandakan then pegged back the hosts by removing Rahul and Shreyas Iyer (4) in the 13th over as the hosts were in spot of bother at 122/4. While Rahul was stumped, Shreyas gave a return return catch to Sandakan.

However, then skipper Kohli (26 off 17 balls, 2x4; 1x6) and Pandey tried to rally the innings before Kohli and Washington Sundar (0) were dismissed in the 18th over. But Shardul's slogging got India past par-score mark.

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Bengaluru: A post-poll survey conducted by Vartha Bharati and Bengaluru-based political research organisation Sankalp has projected a tight contest in the Davanagere South Assembly by-election, with Congress still ahead of BJP but with a sharply reduced margin compared to the 2023 Assembly election.

According to the survey, Congress may retain the seat, but it is likely to lose around 25 per cent of the votes it had secured in the 2023 election. As a result, its lead is expected to shrink considerably. In contrast, BJP is projected to have retained 95 per cent of the votes it secured in 2023.

The survey also noted widespread anger among Muslim voters against Congress, making the by-election far from easy for the ruling party.

Vote share projection

The survey estimates that of the total votes polled in 2023, Congress had secured 58 per cent. In the present by-election, its vote share may decline to 48.7 per cent.

BJP, which had received 39 per cent votes in 2023, may rise to 43.5 per cent this time.

SDPI, which had polled only 0.9 per cent in 2023, is projected to rise sharply to 5.7 per cent.

Independents and NOTA together may account for 2.1 per cent votes.

The survey stated that dissatisfaction among Muslims over ticket distribution and the manner in which Congress handled the community may hurt Congress and benefit SDPI.

Where Congress votes are shifting

Of the votes Congress may lose, a major share is projected to move to BJP.

The survey says:

  • 17 per cent of Congress’s lost votes may shift to BJP
  • 7 per cent may move to SDPI
  • Around 1 per cent may go to others

This means that out of every 100 voters who supported Congress in 2023, nearly 25 may have shifted elsewhere in the by-election.

BJP vote retention strong

The survey estimates BJP has retained 95 per cent of its 2023 voters.

Only 5 per cent of BJP’s earlier votes may have moved to Congress.

Of that 5 per cent shift:

  • 25 per cent are Dalits
  • 33 per cent Lingayats
  • 25 per cent Kurubas
  • 17 per cent others

The survey says no BJP votes appear to have shifted to SDPI.

Social group movement from Congress to BJP

Among the 17 per cent votes shifting from Congress to BJP:

  • 50 per cent Dalits
  • 27 per cent others
  • 11 per cent Lingayats
  • 12 per cent Kurubas

The 7 per cent shift from Congress to SDPI is attributed clearly to Muslim voter dissatisfaction.

Gender-wise voting pattern

Among male voters:

  • Congress: 47.0 per cent
  • BJP: 44.2 per cent
  • SDPI: 6.4 per cent
  • Others: 2.4 per cent

Among female voters:

  • Congress: 53.0 per cent
  • BJP: 41.6 per cent
  • SDPI: 3.9 per cent

Age-wise voting trend

18 to 25 years

A close fight is seen among younger voters.

  • Congress: 45.9 per cent
  • BJP: 45.5 per cent
  • SDPI: 6.6 per cent

The survey says this suggests young Muslim voters may have moved from Congress to SDPI.

26 to 40 years

This is the largest voter group.

  • Congress: 47.4 per cent
  • BJP: 43.5 per cent
  • SDPI: 6.4 per cent

41 to 60 years

Congress is believed to have benefited from sympathy votes linked to Shamanur.

  • Congress: 52.1 per cent
  • BJP: 41.7 per cent
  • SDPI: 4.7 per cent

Above 60 years

BJP appears stronger among senior voters.

  • BJP: 51.0 per cent
  • Congress: 44.4 per cent
  • SDPI: 3.7 per cent

Factors helping Congress

The survey listed the following advantages for Congress:

  • Sympathy factor after Shamanur’s death
  • Voter preference towards ruling party
  • Influence of Mallikarjun-Prabha couple
  • Congress victory in Lok Sabha election

Factors helping BJP

The survey listed the following advantages for BJP:

  • Anti-incumbency against Congress government
  • Anger among Muslims hurting Congress
  • BJP fielding a Dalit candidate

The survey observed that while SDPI gained directly from Muslim anger, BJP gained indirectly because Congress lost votes.

Candidate-wise estimate

The survey projects:

  • Congress candidate Samarth Mallikarjun: 43% to 51%
  • BJP candidate Srinivas T. Dasakariyappa: 42% to 50%
  • SDPI candidate Afsar Kodlipete: around 6%
  • Others: around 1%

Margin expected to shrink sharply

Congress had won the 2023 election by a huge margin of 27,888 votes.

This time, the survey projects Congress may be ahead by only 1,500 to 2600 votes.

It added that since the margin appears extremely narrow, the possibility of a surprise result cannot be ruled out.