Global temperatures passed critical 1.5°C milestone for the first time in 2024: New Report
Oxford (UK), Jan 12: The earth’s climate experienced its hottest year in 2024. Extreme flooding in April killed hundreds of people in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
A year-long drought has left Amazon river levels at an all-time low. And in Athens, Greece, the ancient Acropolis was closed in the afternoons to protect tourists from dangerous heat.
A new report from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirms that 2024 was the first year on record with a global average temperature exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
All continents except Australasia and Antarctica experienced their hottest year on record, with 11 months of the year exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius level.
Global temperatures have been at record levels – and still rising – for several years now. The previous hottest year on record was 2023. All ten of the hottest years on record have fallen within the last decade. But this is the first time a calendar year has exceeded the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.
The heat is on
Scientists at Copernicus used reanalysis to calculate the temperature rises and estimate changes to extreme events. Reanalysis is produced in real-time, combining observations from as many sources as possible – including satellites, weather stations and ships – with a state-of-the-art weather forecasting model, to build up a complete picture of the weather across the globe across the past year.
The resulting dataset is one of the key tools used by scientists globally to study weather and climate.
Limiting sustained global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is a key target of the Paris agreement, the 2015 international treaty which aims to mitigate climate change.
The 195 signatory nations pledged to “pursue efforts” to keep long-term average warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
While reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2024 is a milestone, surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius for a single year does not constitute crossing the Paris threshold.
Year-to-year fluctuations in the weather mean that even if a single year surpasses 1.5 degrees Celsius, the long-term average may still lie below that. It is this long-term average temperature that the Paris agreement refers to. The current long term average is around 1.3 degrees Celsius.
Natural factors, including a strong El Nino, contributed to the increased temperatures in 2024. El Nino is a climate phenomenon that affects weather patterns globally, causing elevated ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
It can raise global average temperatures and make extreme events more likely in some parts of the world. While these natural fluctuations enhanced human-caused climate change in 2024, in other years they act to cool the earth, potentially reducing the observed temperature increase in a particular year.
While targets focus the minds of policymakers, it is important not to over-fixate on what are, from a scientific perspective, fairly arbitrary targets. Research has shown that catastrophic impacts, such as a rapid and potentially irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet, become more likely with every small amount of warming.
These effects may occur even if thresholds are only passed temporarily. In short, every tenth of a degree of warming matters.
Unprecedented extremes
What ultimately affects humans and ecosystems is how global climate change manifests in regional climate and weather. The relationship between global climate and weather is non-linear: 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming may lead to individual heatwaves which are much hotter than the average increase in global temperatures.
Europe recorded its hottest year in 2024, which manifested in severe heatwaves, especially in southern and eastern Europe. Parts of Greece and the Balkans experienced wildfires burning large areas of pine forest and homes.
This new report shows that 44 per cent of the globe experienced strong or higher heat stress on July 10 2024, 5 per cent more than the average annual maximum.
Especially in low-income countries, this can lead to worse health outcomes and excess deaths.
The report also highlights that atmospheric moisture content (rainfall) in 2024 was 5 per cent higher than the average for recent years. Warmer air can hold more moisture and water is a potent greenhouse gas, which traps even more heat in the atmosphere.
More worryingly, this higher moisture content means extreme rainfall events can become more intense. In 2024, many regions suffered from destructive flooding, such as that in Valencia, Spain, last October.
It is not as simple as more moisture content leading to more extreme rainfall: the winds and pressure systems which move weather around also play a role and can be impacted by climate change. This means that rainfall may intensify even faster in some regions than the atmosphere’s moisture content.
To ensure that warming does not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius for a prolonged period, and avoid the worst effects of climate change, we need to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
It is also vital to adapt infrastructure to and protect people from the unprecedented extremes caused by current – and future – levels of warming.
With cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific, it remains to be seen if 2025 will be as hot as 2024. But this new record should highlight the huge influence that humans are having on our climate, and be a wake-up call to us all.
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Fifties by Kohli, Bethel, Shepherd power RCB to 213/5 against CSK
Bengaluru (PTI): Virat Kohli and Jacob Bethel did the early running with well-crafted fifties, while Romario Shepherd applied the finishing touches with a brutal 14-ball unbeaten half-century as Royal Challengers Bengaluru raced to a massive 213 for five against Chennai Super Kings in an IPL match here on Saturday.
The Super Kings skipper MS Dhoni decided to bowl first after winning the toss, but the decision played handsomely into RCB’s hands as Kohli and Bethel merrily chugged along to make 97 runs in just 9.5 overs for the opening wicket.
Kohli (62 off 33 balls) and Bethel (55 off 33) exploited a fuss-free pitch to telling effect, and their job was made much easier by the wrong lines of CSK bowlers, which was evidenced when Shepherd (53 not out off 14 balls; 4x4, 6X6) made the joint second fastest fifty in the IPL.
The fastest fifty of the IPL was struck off just 13 balls by Yashasvi Jaiswal in 2023, while both KL Rahul (in 2018) and Pat Cummins (2022) had also earlier made half centuries off 14 balls.
Khaleel Ahmed, who has the highest number of dot balls in this IPL at 110, tried to test Kohli with snorter but it was pulled thunderously over fine leg for a six.
In the very next ball, the left-arm pacer went for a fuller length delivery but it was on Kohli’s pads as the batter sent the ball soaring over square leg for a maximum, and all he needed was a simple unlocking of his wrist.
Bethel was more brutal. The England left-hander smashed Ahmed for three successive fours in the first over itself, all rasping cuts and forceful drives, as RCB raced out of the traps.
The 21-year-old had a slice of fortune too as Ravindra Jadeja and Matheesha Pathirana collided with each other to spill a catch off pacer Anshul Kamboj.
Bethel was on 27 then, and he soon brought up his maiden IPL fifty with a reverse scoop off Jadeja.
Kohli too reached his fifty soon after with a routine slap through the cover region for a four off Jadeja.
Just as the alliance was blossoming further, Bethel skied Pathirana for Dewald Brevis to complete a fine catch running in from the boundary line.
It gave some respite to the CSK bowlers, who found a way to stem the free flow of runs using cutters and into-the-deck deliveries, particularly Sam Curran (1/34) and Pathirana (3/36).
Curran consumed Kohli with a slow delivery which did not allow the batter to execute a ramp over Ahmed at gully.
But Kohli and Bethel had given RCB a superb platform as the home side were placed at 121 for 2 in the 12th over.
However, the improved lengths of CSK bowlers and a tinge of slowness in the track made RCB settle for 37 runs between overs 12 and 18 as batters like Devdutt Padikkal and skipper Rajat Patidar failed to force the pace.
But Shepherd waded into Ahmed (65 runs in 3 overs), slamming him for four sixes and two fours in the 19th over which yielded 33 runs.
Shepherd and Tim David raised their fifty stand for the sixth wicket in just 14 balls and the latter contributed a princely two runs in that alliance.
