IMF projects India's growth at 7.3 per cent in 2018, 7.4 per cent next year
Washington, Oct 9 : India is projected to grow at 7.3 per cent in 2018 and 7.4 per cent next year, the IMF said Tuesday, predicting that the country will regain the tag of the world's fastest growing major economy this year, surpassing China with more than 0.7 percentage points.
In 2017, India had clocked a 6.7 per cent growth rate.
In India, important reforms have been implemented in the recent years, including the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the inflation-targeting framework, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, and steps to liberalise foreign investment and make it easier to do business, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.
"India's growth is expected to increase to 7.3 per cent in 2018 and 7.4 per cent in 2019 (slightly lower than in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 2019, given the recent increase in oil prices and the tightening of global financial conditions), up from 6.7 per cent in 2017," it said in the WEO report.
This acceleration, the world body said, reflected a rebound from transitory shocks (the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the GST), with strengthening investment and robust private consumption.
India's medium-term growth prospects remain strong at 7 per cent, benefiting from the ongoing structural reforms, but have been marked down by just under a half percentage point relative to the April 2018 WEO, it said.
If projections are true, then India would regain the tag of the fastest growing major economy of the world, crossing China with more than 0.7 percentage points in 2018 and an impressive 1.2 percentage point growth lead in 2019.
China was the fastest growing economy in 2017 as it was ahead of India by 0.2 percentage points. For the record, the IMF has lowered the growth projections for both India and China by 0.4 per cent and 0.32 per cent, respectively, from its annual April's WEO.
Released in Bali during the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, the IMF's flagship WEO said its 2019 growth projection for China is lower than in April, given the latest round of US tariffs on Chinese imports, as are its projections for India.
In China, growth is projected to moderate from 6.9 per cent in 2017 to 6.6 per cent in 2018 and 6.2 per cent in 2019, reflecting a slowing external demand growth and necessary financial regulatory tightening, the report said.
The 0.2 percentage point downgrade to the 2019 growth forecast is attributable to the negative effect of recent tariff actions, assumed to be partially offset by policy stimulus, it said.
Over the medium term, growth is expected to gradually slow to 5.6 per cent as the economy continues to make the transition to a more sustainable growth path with continued financial de-risking and environmental controls, it noted.
"Owing to these changes, our international growth projections for both this year and next are downgraded to 3.7 per cent, 0.2 percentage point below our last assessments and the same rate achieved in 2017," the report said.
The growth rate of the US for 2018 is 2.9 per cent and that of 2019 has been powered to 2.5 per cent.
"Looking ahead, renewed impetus to reform labour and land markets, along with further improvements to the business climate are also crucial (in India)," it said.
According to the WEO, in India, reform priorities include reviving bank credit and enhancing the efficiency of credit provision by accelerating the cleanup of bank and corporate balance sheets and improving the governance of public sector banks.
In India, a high interest burden and risks from rising yields require continued focus on debt reduction to establish policy credibility and build buffers.
"These efforts should be supported by further reductions in subsidies and enhanced compliance with the Goods and Services Tax," the IMF report said.
It also said inflation in India is on the rise, estimated at 3.6 per cent in fiscal year 2017/18 and projected at 4.7 per cent in fiscal year 2018/19, compared to 4.5 per cent in fiscal year 2016/17, amid accelerating demand and rising fuel prices.
The report said that aggregate growth in the emerging market and developing economy group stabilised in the first half of 2018.
Emerging Asia continued to register strong growth, supported by a domestic demand-led pickup in the Indian economy from a four-year-low pace of expansion in 2017, even as activity in China moderated in the second quarter in response to regulatory tightening of the property sector and nonbank financial intermediation, it added.
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Karnataka MLA Vinay Kulkarni disqualified after conviction in Goudar murder case
Bengaluru (PTI): The Karnataka Legislative Assembly on Saturday issued an official notification regarding the disqualification of Congress MLA Vinay Kulkarni following his conviction in the murder case of BJP leader Yogeshgouda Goudar.
The former minister is currently in prison, serving life imprisonment in the case.
“Consequent upon the conviction of Vinay Kulkarni, Member of the Karnataka Legislative Assembly representing the Dharwad constituency, by the LXXXI Additional City Civil & Sessions Judge, Bengaluru City (CCH-82), in Spl CC No. 565/2021, he stands disqualified from the membership of the Karnataka Legislative Assembly from the date of conviction, i.e, April 15, 2026,” the notification read.
“He stands disqualified in terms of the provisions of Article 191(1)(e) of the Constitution of India, read with Section 8 of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, and such disqualification shall continue for a further period of six years after his release, unless the conviction is stayed by a competent court,” it added.
Hence, one seat in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly has fallen vacant, the notification said.
Bypolls were held on April 9 to fill two other seats in the 224-member Assembly that fell vacant due to the death of sitting MLAs. The results will be declared on May 4.
On April 15, Judge Santhosh Gajanan Bhat convicted Kulkarni and others under various IPC sections, including criminal conspiracy and murder. Subsequently, on April 17, the court sentenced Kulkarni and 15 others convicted in the case to life imprisonment.
The case pertains to the killing of Goudar, a BJP Zilla Panchayat member, in Dharwad on June 15, 2016. Kulkarni was a minister at that time. Hired assailants attacked and hacked Goudar to death in his gym at Saptapur in Dharwad.
Following demands from Goudar’s family and others, the then-BJP government transferred the case to the CBI in 2019.
The CBI filed a supplementary chargesheet in 2020, naming Vinay Kulkarni as the “main conspirator.” It alleged that he perceived Yogeshgouda Goudar as a growing political rival in Dharwad and hired contract killers to eliminate him.
Kulkarni was arrested by the CBI in 2020. He was granted bail by the Supreme Court in August 2021 under certain conditions, including a ban on entering Dharwad district. However, in June 2025, the apex court cancelled his bail following allegations of witness tampering and attempts to influence prosecution witnesses.
Kulkarni again sought bail in January 2026, but the High Court rejected it, citing judicial propriety.
However, the Supreme Court granted him bail on February 27 after noting that all witnesses had been examined.
