India should create strategic buffers to navigate 'most difficult' energy shock: CEA Nageswaran
New Delhi (PTI): Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Saturday said India needs to create strategic buffers in the face of the "most difficult" energy shock that the country is facing amid the West Asia crisis.
Nageswaran also said the rising prices of fertiliser and petroleum products globally due to the crisis will make it challenging to achieve the 4.3 per cent fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal, while below normal monsoon and pass-through of higher energy prices could lead to "potential inflation spike".
He also said India has employment challenge emanating from AI, and there is a need to ensure that IT sector becomes more competitive and not lose jobs to AI, and instead create jobs that use AI within the IT sector or in other services.
Speaking at the ICPP Growth Conference organised by the Ashoka University, Nageswaran said the current account deficit (CAD) in the current fiscal could rise to over 2 per cent of GDP, from less than 1 per cent in FY'26.
"The ... priority for us is to create strategic buffers. This energy shock is the most difficult one compared to any other previous energy shock in terms of energy lost as a percentage of total global energy supply, not just oil, including gas.
"And we also need to use this occasion to think about other areas where we are vulnerable in terms of import dependence, nickel, tin, and copper. We need to build strategic buffers if we have to make a shot at manufacturing and becoming indispensable," Nageswaran said.
Since the beginning of the war in West Asia on February 28, crude oil prices soared to a four-year high of USD 126 per barrel on Thursday, from about USD 73 level before the war.
Stating that geopolitics will compel policymakers to be nimble and flexible and shed old model of thinking, Nageswaran said India is better prepared than many other countries to deal with the crisis because of the fiscal leeway that the country has due to lowering of fiscal deficit ratio to 4.4 per cent of GDP in FY'26.
Nageswaran said the West Asia conflict is more of a price shock than supply shock for India as the government is managing the supply side deftly.
"This particular conflict, which is going to be on a low simmer or a high flame situation, whatever it is, it is going to be there with us in some form or the other because the military conflict may be over, but the strategic conflict is well and truly alive. It will be so for some time," Nageswaran said.
He said the conflict has four channels of shock: price and supply shock, trade impact, sticky logistics costs and remittance shock.
India imports 60 per cent of its LPG usage and of that, 90 per cent flows through the now closed Strait of Hormuz.
Nageswaran said the pass-through of high global energy prices would have to be a "balancing act". He said some pass-through is already happening in commercial LPG, and the levy of export duty on diesel and ATF.
The government has cut excise duty on petrol and diesel to shield customers from the impact of the rise in petroleum prices. "We are coming around to arriving at a certain modus vivendi with respect to burden-sharing between the fiscal policy side, inflation, households and the oil marketing companies. So it has to be a balancing act," Nageswaran said.
Let the Truth be known. If you read VB and like VB, please be a VB Supporter and Help us deliver the Truth to one and all.
44 peacocks die of H5N1 in Karnataka’s Tumakuru; minister orders precautions
Bengaluru (PTI): After 44 peacocks died of the H5N1 virus in Tumakuru district, Karnataka Minister Eshwar Khandre on Saturday directed officials to implement strict precautionary measures to prevent its spread across forest areas, including zoos and bird sanctuaries.
The directive comes after laboratory reports from the ICAR–National Institute of High Security Animal Diseases in Bhopal recently confirmed H5N1 avian influenza as the cause of the deaths.
According to the state forest minister, the peacocks died between April 16 and 21 in and around Bommanahalli and Kolihalli villages in Urdigere hobli, and Bairasandra and Hullenahalli villages in Gulur hobli of Tumakuru district.
“In this context, instructions have been issued in line with the revised H5N1 Action Plan of the Central Government to prevent the spread of infection across all forest areas, including zoos, bird sanctuaries, Magadi Lake, and the community reserve at Kokkare Bellur,” Khandre said in a note addressed to the principal chief conservator of forests (wildlife) and chief wildlife warden.
He also directed that any deaths of birds, whether migratory or local, must be reported immediately, and that samples from carcasses should be collected and sent for testing.
If required, a nodal officer may be appointed to monitor the situation across the state, he added.
Authorities have established an infected zone within a 0–3 km radius and a surveillance zone extending from 3 to 10 km.
According to the Health Department, surveillance for fever, Influenza-Like Illness (ILI), and Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) will be carried out over the next 10 days, covering a population of 20,432 across 38 villages.
In light of the situation, the department has advised the public to follow precautionary measures to minimise the risk of infection by avoiding contact with sick or dead birds and maintaining hand hygiene by washing hands frequently with soap and water.
It has also suggested the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) while handling birds or their droppings, and advised ensuring that poultry and eggs are thoroughly cooked (above 80 degrees celcius) before consumption.
The health department has also recommended avoiding close contact with individuals exhibiting symptoms of respiratory illness.
The department said it is closely monitoring the situation and has put necessary precautionary measures in place.
The public has been advised to remain vigilant and report any unusual bird deaths or symptoms promptly, officials added.
Avian influenza (H5N1) is a subtype of the influenza virus that infects birds and mammals, including humans in rare instances, according to the World Health Organisation. Human cases reported so far have been mostly linked to close contact with infected birds or other animals, or with contaminated environments.
